中国民航业飞机部门的碳排放预测——基于周转量、经济条件和政策影响的模型分析  

Carbon Emission Projections in the Aircraft Sector of China’s Civil Aviation Industry:A Model Analysis Based on Turnover,Economic Conditions and Policy Impacts

作　　者：陈子骏 杨永刚[1] CHEN Zijun;YANG Yonggang(College of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《科技和产业》2024年第15期122-126,共5页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：中国航空业的快速发展引发了对其能源消耗和碳排放的关注。通过实证分析,结合逐步回归和长期能源替代规划(LEAP)模型,预测航空货运和客运周转量,并评估未来碳排放量。设定3种情景:悲观情景(无显著技术或政策变化)、政策情景(考虑政府措施)和技术突破情景(技术创新与可持续航空燃料(SAF)推广)。特别指出SAF在减排中的潜力,强调其商业和兼容性优势。预测结果显示:在悲观情景下碳排放削减有限;政策情景下会有所减少,但受现有技术限制;技术突破情景下能显著减少排放。强调技术创新对航空业可持续发展的重要性,并提出未来研究方向,以提高SAF的生产效率和降低成本,评估其全生命周期环境影响,并推动市场和国际合作。The rapid development of China’s aviation industry has raised concerns about its energy consumption and carbon emissions.The air cargo and passenger turnover are predicted through empirical analysis,combined with stepwise regression and large-scale energy analysis and planning(LEAP)models,future carbon emissions is evaluated.Three scenarios are set:pessimistic scenario(no significant technological or policy changes),policy scenario(considering government measures),and technological breakthrough scenario(promoting technological innovation and sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)).Special emphasis is placed on the potential of SAF in emission reduction,emphasizing its commercial and compatibility advantages.The prediction results show that carbon emission reduction is limited in a pessimistic scenario.There may be a reduction in policy scenarios,but it is limited by existing technology.Under the scenario of technological breakthroughs,emissions can be significantly reduced.The importance of technological innovation for the sustainable development of the aviation industry is emphasized,and it is suggested to improve the production efficiency and reduce costs of SAF,evaluate its full life cycle environmental impact,and promote market and international cooperation.

关 键 词：飞机部门 长期能源替代规划(LEAP) 可持续航空燃料(SAF) 碳排放结果 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]