气候变化背景下珠江口地区台风风暴潮和流域洪水遭遇事件的风险探究  

Study on risk of storm surge and river flood ecounter at the Pearl River Estuary under the background of climate change

作　　者：余锡平 张安一方[2] 单楷越 Yu Xiping;Zhang Anyifang;Shan Kaiyue

机构地区：[1]南方科技大学,深圳518055 [2]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《中国水利》2024年第14期27-32,共6页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41961144014);中国科协青年人才托举项目(2023QNRC001)。

摘　　要：珠江三角洲是我国开放程度最高、经济活力最强的区域之一,该地区易受超强台风风暴潮和流域特大洪水等极端事件的侵袭,其复合作用的风险也不可忽视。全球气候变化更是增添了珠江三角洲地区防洪安全的复杂性。系统分析珠江口地区复合洪水的发生条件与致灾风险,提出精准防灾减灾措施,对保障珠江三角洲地区的长治久安和可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究表明,珠江口地区的台风风暴潮和流域洪水的间隔窗口期呈逐步缩小趋势,二者叠加产生复合灾害的潜在风险呈逐步增加趋势。The Pearl River Delta,which is a densely populated and economically well-developed region in China,is highly vulnerable to extreme events such as severe storm surges and major river floods,and the risk of their combined effects cannot be ignored.A statistical analysis of storm surge and flood risk in the Pearl River Estuary region shows that the interval window of storm surge and flood events in the basin shows a decreasing trend.The potential risk of compound disaster caused by superposition of storm surge and basin flood in the Pearl River Estuary area is increasing.It is suggested that a systematic study of the conditions that lead to compound flooding events in the Pearl River Delta as well as of the disaster prevention and mitigation strategies are crucial for the safty and sustainability of this important region.

关 键 词：珠江口 台风风暴潮 流域洪水 复合灾害 气候变化 

分 类 号：TV882.4[水利工程—水利水电工程] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]