“挤入”抑或“挤出”:财政转移支付对消费的影响——基于家庭债务异质性视角  

“Squeezing-in”or“Squeezing-out”:the Impact of Fiscal Transfer Payment on Consumption--An empirical study from the heterogeneous perspective of household debt

作　　者：毛凌琳[1,2] 郭新华[1] MAO Ling-lin;GUO Xin-hua(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan,Hunan 411105,China;College of Economics and Management,Hunan University of Arts and Science,Changde,Hunan 415000,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105 [2]湖南文理学院经济与管理学院,湖南常德415000

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第4期104-111,142,共9页Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国家庭资产负债表演变对财政支出效应的影响研究”(21BJL026);湖南省社科基金基地项目“中国财政支出冲击对农村家庭储蓄变动的影响研究”(22JD052);湘潭大学研究生科研创新项目“收入不平等视角下财政支出冲击的信贷市场响应研究”(XDCX2023Y023)。

摘　　要：深刻理解家庭债务异质性背景下财政转移支付对家庭消费的影响及其作用机理,这对政府制定财政转移支付政策具有重要价值。使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014、2016和2018年三轮面板数据,以及2006—2021年省级面板数据,实证考察了家庭债务异质性视角下财政转移支付的消费效应。实证结果表明:财政转移支付的增加挤入了家庭消费,随着家庭债务水平的提高,财政转移支付对家庭消费的挤入效应减弱,且家庭债务异质性导致的家庭消费水平和消费结构对财政转移支付冲击的反应存在差异;家庭债务异质性视角下财政转移支付对消费的影响可通过流动性约束和预防性储蓄两个渠道发挥作用;不同区域的家庭债务水平对财政转移支付的消费效应具有不同的影响。因此,政府应该考虑区域债务水平的差异来制定财政转移支付政策,并合理控制家庭部门杠杆水平,降低家庭经济风险,提振消费。A profound understanding of the impact and mechanism of fiscal transfer payments on household consumption in the context of household debt heterogeneity is of significant value for governments to formulate fiscal transfer payment policies.Using panel data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2014,2016,and 2018,as well as provincial panel data from 2006 to 2021,this study empirically examines the consumption effect of fiscal transfer payments from the perspective of household debt heterogeneity.The empirical findings indicate that an increase in fiscal transfers leads to an increase in household consumption,but this effect diminishes as household debt levels rise.Moreover,household debt heterogeneity results in variations in the responsiveness of household consumption levels and structures to fiscal transfer shocks.The impact of fiscal transfers on consumption from the perspective of household debt heterogeneity operates through the two channels:liquidity constraints and precautionary savings.Additionally,the level of household debt in different regions has different impacts on the consumption effect of fiscal transfer payments.Therefore,governments should consider the regional debt level differences when formulating fiscal transfer payment policies,reasonably control the leverage of the household sector,reduce household economic risks,and boost consumption.

关 键 词：家庭债务 财政转移支付 异质性 消费 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学]