中国数字经济与实体经济:耦合协调及时空演变研究  

Research on the Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Evolution of China's Digital Economy and Real Economy

作　　者：马长发[1] 苏鹏 MA Changfa;SU Peng(Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学

出　　处：《金融经济》2024年第6期3-17,共15页Finance Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“扶贫、稳定、城乡融合视域下的南疆三地州新型城镇化制度变迁路径研究”(71864034)。

摘　　要：本文基于2011—2022年30个省份的面板数据,建立数字经济与实体经济综合评价指标体系。运用耦合协调度、核密度分析、马尔可夫链及空间自相关等模型,对我国数字经济与实体经济的耦合协调度及时空演变特征进行测算分析。研究发现,我国数字经济与实体经济的耦合协调水平虽逐年提升,但由于各地区经济发展水平、产业结构、资源配置、数字技术与人才供给的非均衡性,导致空间不平衡现象明显,总体呈现“东高西低”的空间格局。区域内部分省份及产业集群凭借特定优势形成发展极,加剧了内部差异,呈现多极化演进趋势。“俱乐部收敛”现象反映出不同发展水平区域间的自我强化机制,导致等级锁定,难以迅速跨越发展鸿沟;莫兰指数呈现波动上升趋势,集聚程度缓慢提高,但在空间上集聚形态分布并不均衡,总体呈现“高高低低”的空间集聚特征。Based on panel data from 30 provinces from 2011 to 2022,this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for the digital economy and the real economy.Using models such as coupling coordination degree,kernel density analysis,Markov chain,and spatial autocorrelation,it measures and analyzes the coupling coordination degree and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China's digital economy and real economy.The study finds that although the coupling coordination level of China's digital economy and real economy has improved annually,the spatial imbalance is evident due to the non-equilibrium of economic development levels,industrial structures,resource allocation,and the supply of digital technology and talent across different regions.Overall,there is a spatial pattern of"high in the east,low in the west".Some provinces and industrial clusters within regions have formed development poles due to specific advantages,exacerbating internal differences and showing a trend of multipolar evolution.The phenomenon of"club convergence"reflects a self-reinforcing mechanism between regions with different development levels,leading to rank locking and making it difficult to quickly bridge development gaps.The Moran index shows a fluctuating upward trend,with a slow increase in the degree of aggregation.However,the spatial distribution of aggregation patterns is uneven,generally presenting a spatial aggregation characteristic of"high-high and low-low".

关 键 词：数字经济 实体经济 耦合协调 时空演变 空间自相关 俱乐部收敛 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]