Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling  

作　　者：Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO 

机构地区：[1]Department of Atmospheric Science,CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China [2]Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Climate Change Research Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [3]Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory,Yichang 443099,China [4]Geophysical Institute,University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,Bergen 5007,Norway [5]Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,Bergen 5007,Norway [6]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第8期1539-1558,共20页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：funding from the NFR COMBINED (Grant No.328935);The BCPU hosted YZ visit to University of Bergen (Trond Mohn Foundation Grant No.BFS2018TMT01);supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2023YFA0805101);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42376250 and 41731177);a China Scholarship Council fellowship and the UTFORSK Partnership Program (CONNECTED UTF-2016-long-term/10030)。

摘　　要：Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关 键 词：triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards PROJECTION 

分 类 号：TV697.2[水利工程—水利水电工程] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]