养老保险全国统筹下的委托代理问题:经办机构垂直管理是不是破解之匙?  

Delegated agency issues within national coordination of pension insurance:Is vertical management by administrative agencies the decisive solution?

作　　者：王增文[1] 姚金 彭浩荣 WANG Zengwen;YAO Jin;PENG Haorong(Center for Social Security Studies of Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第7期1-12,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“健全退役军人工作体系和保障制度研究”(21AZD072);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“抚育成本与家庭收益失衡下破解低生育率难题的政策架构研究”(21YJA630093)。

摘　　要：2022年我国职工养老保险正式实现全国统筹。然而,受制于现行“央地共管”社会保障模式,全国统筹易引发中央与地方政府间委托代理问题,不利于全国统筹目标的顺利实现。在此背景下,经办机构全国垂直管理能否成功化解委托代理问题?利用省级改革近似模拟全国改革,构建计量和精算模型发现:第一,职工养老保险省级统筹造成有效费率降低2.40%,若同时辅以经办机构省级垂直管理,有效费率会提高2.90%;第二,异质性检验结果表明,经办机构实现垂直管理在老龄化程度高和国有经济占比低的地区效果更好;第三,从养老保险经办流程看,统筹层次提高将导致地方政府在参保登记环节放松监管以创造招商引资优势,实现垂直管理后此类寻租行为将得到有效改善;第四,未实现全国统筹下2023—2050年间政府养老保险累计支出达到718.02万亿,实现全国统筹后财政支出规模增加19.06%,若辅以经办机构全国垂直管理,政府养老保险支出规模将下降23.08%。综上,为确保全国统筹政策效应的有效释放,研究认为应采取渐进式改革路径,即首先建立起市级政府对县区级政府垂直管理的经办体系,然后做实养老保险经办机构省级垂直管理,最后再构建起从中央到地方的垂直管理体系,以期推动职工养老保险制度高质量发展。In 2022,China officially achieved national coordination of the employees’pension insurance system.However,due to the current‘central-local joint management’social security model,national coordination can easily trigger principal-agent problem between central and local governments,which hampers the smooth realization of the national coordination objectives.Against this backdrop,can the establishment of a national vertical management system by the implementing agencies be an effective measure to address these agency problems?This article employs a provincial-level reform as a proxy for national reform,constructing econometric and actuarial models,and makes the following findings:First,the provincial coordination of employees’pension insurance causes the effective rate to decrease by 2.40%,and if it is complemented by the vertical management of operators at the provincial level,the effective rate will increase by 2.90%;second,the results of the test of heterogeneity show that the vertical management of operators is more effective in the regions with high degree of aging and a low proportion of state-owned economy;third,in terms of the process of the pension insurance operation,the increase in the level of coordination will lead to the relaxation of supervision of the local government in the registration process in order to create an advantage in investment promotion.Third,from the perspective of the process of pension insurance administration,the increase in the level of coordination will lead local governments to relax the supervision in the registration process in order to create an advantage in attracting investments,and such rent-seeking behavior will be effectively improved after the realization of vertical management;fourth,the cumulative government expenditures on pension insurance will reach 718.02 trillion yuan during the period of 2023-2050 without the realization of the national coordination,and the scale of the expenditures will increase by 19.06%after the realization of the national coordination

关 键 词：全国统筹 垂直管理 有效费率 财政养老保险支出 

分 类 号：F840.684[经济管理—保险] C913.7[社会学]