能源安全保障的驱动路径与实践策略:基于地方财政自主度的视角  

Driving path and practical strategies for energy security guarantee:From the perspective of fiscal autonomy

作　　者：徐孝民 刘星月 陈平泽[1] XU Xiaomin;LIU Xingyue;CHEN Pingze(School of Management,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第7期13-24,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国煤炭消费有序减量替代的多智能体模拟与路径”(23AGL033)。

摘　　要：基于2015—2021年我国30个省份(不含港澳台及西藏)的面板数据,构建能源安全评估框架,考察其区域差异和动态演变状况,分析财政保障能源安全的驱动路径及实践策略。研究发现:观测期内能源安全指数随时间呈波动上升趋势,指数相对大小表现出东部地区>西部地区>中部地区特点。从区域差异来看:我国能源安全的泰尔指数呈现出区域间变化不大、区域内波动下降的态势,且区域差异主要来源于区域内部的差异;核密度估计曲线分布具有“高度变高,宽度变窄”特点,即区域内部差异随时间稍有变小;能源安全指数符合σ和β收敛性质。财政自主度对能源安全有显著促进作用,该正向作用可通过缓解地方政府财政压力、增加政府总储蓄的途径发挥。财政自主度对能源安全的正向影响呈现出“西部地区>东部地区>中部地区”的特点。财政自主度是所有影响能源安全的显性因素中的最重要因素。根据研究结果,为我国统筹能源安全与发展提出相关的财政政策和产业政策建议。Leveraging panel data encompassing 30 provinces in China from 2015 to 2021,this study formulates an assessment framework for energy security.It delves into regional disparities and dynamic evolutions,delineating the driving path and practical strategies for fiscal security to bolster energy security.Key findings reveal:During the study period,the energy security index exhibited fluctuating growth,with the eastern region surpassing the western and central regions in terms of index magnitude.From a regional perspective,the Theil index for China’s energy security exhibited minimal inter-regional changes and declining intra-regional fluctuations,indicating that regional disparities primarily stem from within-region variations.The kernel density estimation curve distribution demonstrated a trend towards“getting higher and narrowing the width,”indicating that intra-regional disparities narrowed over time,aligning with the convergence properties ofσandβ.Fiscal autonomy significantly enhances energy security,achieved by relieving fiscal pressure on local governments and increasing government total savings.The positive impact of fiscal autonomy on energy security follows the pattern of“western region>eastern region>central region.”Among all explicit factors,fiscal autonomy emerges as the most crucial determinant of energy security.Based on the research results,relevant fiscal and industrial policy recommendations have been proposed for China to coordinate energy security and development.

关 键 词：能源安全 财政自主度 区域差异 动态演变 驱动路径 

分 类 号：F410[经济管理—产业经济]