人口流动与企业生产链长度--基于户籍制度改革的准自然实验  

Migration and Firm Production Chain Length:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Hukou Reform

作　　者：冯祯祯 崔凡[2] 邓兴华 Feng Zhenzhen;Cui Fan;Deng Xinghua(School of International Trade and Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics;School of International Business,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [3]西南财经大学国际商学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2024年第4期138-161,共24页Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国企业国际化与制度演进”(项目编号:71832012)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：生产链长度反映了企业在全球价值链体系中生产的复杂程度和分工地位。本文以户籍制度改革为切入点,在梳理特征事实与理论机理后,构建多期双重差分模型探究了人口流动对企业生产链长度的影响及内在机制。研究发现:首先,户籍制度改革在促进人口流动方面有较大突破,但大部分外来人口仍面临落户困境,且受教育程度有限;其次,实证结果表明户籍制度改革缩短了企业的生产链长度,主要原因在于改革引致的人口主要流入了低生产率企业,只有协同推进户籍制度改革与教育和人力资本水平提升,才能显著延长企业生产链长度;最后,异质性分析表明,上述影响主要表现于劳动密集型行业和公共服务质量较高的城市。The production chain length reflects the production complexity and division status of firms in the global value chain Based on the hukou reform,this paper conducts a multiperiod differenceindifferences(DID)model to explore the impact of migration on the production chain length of firms and the mechanisms after clarifying the stylized facts and theoretical analyses The results are as follows First,the hukou reform promotes migration,but it is still difficult to settle down for most migrants who have a low level of education Second,the empirical results show that the hukou reform reduces the production chain length,and the reason is that the migrants induced by this reform mainly flow into lowproductivity firms Only by promoting the hukou reform and improving the level of education and human capital simultaneously,can the production chain length be significantly extended Third,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the above effect mainly exists in laborintensive industries and cities with highquality public services。

关 键 词：人口流动 户籍制度改革 生产链长度 生产率 人力资本 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F016