养老保险体系何以可持续?--基于基本养老保险与个人养老金协调发展的视角  

How Can the Pension System Develop Sustainably?From the Perspective of Coordinated Development Between Basic Pension and Personal Pension

作　　者：蓝浩歌 赵桂芹[1] Lan Haoge;Zhao Guiqin(School of Finance,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2024年第4期183-208,共26页Economic Science

基　　金：上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目“第三支柱个人养老金的经济效应及其政策优化”(项目编号:CXJJ-2023-321)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文构建一个世代交叠一般均衡模型,通过理论分析和数值模拟,探究基本养老保险与个人养老金的联合作用对重要经济变量的影响。研究发现,基本养老保险与个人养老金缴费率的合理组合可以在实现经济增长的同时提高养老金待遇水平;个人养老金缴费率对经济总产出的影响取决于领取期税率的大小,仅当领取期税率较低时,才可能对经济产生负面影响。个体异质性分析表明,与低收入群体相比,降低基本养老保险缴费率和提高个人养老金缴费率对高收入群体的私人储蓄影响更大。此外,降低基本养老保险缴费率会导致低收入群体的养老金总和替代率下降更为显著。This paper constructs an overlapping generation(OLG)model to theoretically analyze and numerically simulate the joint effects of basic pension and personal pension on significant economic variables The research findings indicate that the reasonable combination of contribution rates for basic pension and personal pension can concurrently achieve economic growth and enhance pension benefits The impact of the personal pension contribution rate on economic output depends on the size of the deferred tax rate,and negative effects on the economy only occur when the deferred tax rate is at a low level The individual heterogeneity analysis shows that compared to lowincome groups,reducing the contribution rate for basic pension and increasing the contribution rate for personal pension have a more substantial impact on private savings for highincome groups Additionally,lowering the contribution rate for basic pension leads to a more significant decrease in the total pension replacement rate for lowincome groups。

关 键 词：个人养老金 基本养老保险 养老金替代率 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险]