重复使用航天运输系统经济效益敏感性研究  

Sensitivity Study on the Economic Benefits of Reusable Aerospace Transportation Systems

作　　者：牟宇 周昊 樊晨霄 MOU Yu;ZHOU Hao;FAN Chenxiao(Beijing Institute of Astronautical Systems Engineering,Beijing 100076,China)

机构地区：[1]北京宇航系统工程研究所,北京100076

出　　处：《宇航总体技术》2024年第4期52-63,共12页Astronautical Systems Engineering Technology

摘　　要：面向未来低成本、高效益航天运输系统发展趋势,早期经济性研究工作已无法适配当前技术经济一体化发展需求,重复使用技术的日趋成熟为其降本增效注入了全新动力,围绕重复使用的航天运输系统经济效益分析逐渐成为重要研究领域。基于成本估算关系(Cost Estimation Relations,CER)方法与源变量分析理论,建立了运载火箭单箭成本模型,在此基础上考虑任务级重复使用火箭全生命周期工况并建立了面向任务场景的经济分析模型。结合仿真场景,对经济性关键变量影响的敏感性开展量化分析研究,为后续重复使用技术经济一体化发展提供指导。Targeting the quest for cost-effective and efficient aerospace transportation,reusability technology's maturity emerges as a cornerstone.Heightened demands reveal prior studies' insufficiency in capturing today's techno-economic synergy.Consequently,analyzing reusable systems' economic benefits becomes a paramount research focus.Employing Cost Estimation Relations methodologies and leveraging source variable analysis,this paper constructs a unit cost model for launch vehicles.Building on this foundation,a comprehensive economic analysis model is developed to encapsulate the full lifecycle of task-level reusable rockets,tailored to mission-specific scenarios.Through simulation,a sensitivity analysis quantifying the impact of pivotal economic variables is conducted,offering strategic guidance for the integrated economic and technological advancement of reusability in aerospace systems.

关 键 词：重复使用 航天运输系统 经济效益分析 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：V11[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]