宜昌市生境质量变化及其驱动机制研究  

Study on Habitat Quality Change and Its Driving Mechanism in Yichang

作　　者：李正膨 刘玉成[1] LI Zhengpeng;LIU Yucheng(School of Economics and Management,Yangtze University,Jingzhou,Hubei 434023,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《天津农业科学》2024年第7期60-66,共7页Tianjin Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：为探究宜昌市生境质量变化的驱动机制,采用InVEST模型,对宜昌市1995—2020年生境质量的变化进行评估,并借助空间自相关模型、最小二乘法、地理加权回归模型、随机森林算法,深入探讨生境质量变化的驱动机制。结果表明,宜昌市的生境质量总体呈现下降趋势,特别是在1995—2005年和2015—2020年,下降幅度明显。这一趋势主要受城市建设用地扩张、耕地转变和裸地增加等因素的驱动。生境质量在空间上的分布表现出明显的特征,即城市中心区域的生境质量较低,而周边山区的生境质量较高。这种空间分布的特征随着时间的推移变得更加显著,表明城市中心和周边山区之间的生境质量差异不断加大。驱动因素分析结果显示,自然地理因素(坡度和降水)对生境质量有着积极的影响,而社会经济因素(人口密度、夜间灯光指数和地区生产总值)与生境质量呈负相关关系,并且这些因素的影响随着城市化进程的加速而增强。在模型效能比较中,随机森林算法在拟合生境质量变化方面展现出较最小二乘法和地理加权回归模型更高的精确度。本文不仅为宜昌市的生态保护和恢复工作提供了科学依据,也为土地利用规划和生态扶贫政策的制定提供了实证参考。未来研究应进一步探索在城市化进程中如何实现经济发展与生态保护的有效平衡,并优化模型与算法,以提高生境质量变化预测和管理的准确性。In order to explore the driving mechanism of habitat quality change in Yichang City,this paper adopted InVEST model to evaluate the change of habitat quality in Yichang city from 1995 to 2020,and further discussed the driving mechanism of habitat quality change with the help of spatial autocorrelation model,least square method,geographical weighted regression model and random forest algorithm.The results indicated that the habitat quality in Yichang City showed a decreasing trend,especially from 1995 to 2005 and from 2015 to 2020.This trend was mainly driven by the expansion of urban construction land,the conversion of cultivated land and the increase of bare land.The spatial distribution of habitat quality showed obvious characteristics,that was,the habitat quality in the urban center was lower,while the habitat quality in the surrounding mountainous area was higher.This spatial distribution had become more significant over time,indicating a growing difference in habitat quality between urban centers and surrounding mountain areas.The results of driver analysis showed that physical geographical factors(slope and precipitation)had a positive impact on habitat quality,while socio-economic factors(population density,night light index and gross regional product)had a negative correlation with habitat quality,and the impact of these factors increased with the acceleration of urbanization.In the model performance comparison,the random forest algorithm showed higher accuracy in fitting habitat quality changes than the least square method and the geographical weighted regression model.This paper not only provides a scientific basis for ecological protection and restoration in Yichang City,but also provides an empirical reference for land use planning and ecological poverty alleviation policy formulation.Future studies should further explore how to achieve an effective balance between economic development and ecological protection in the process of urbanization,and optimize models and algorithms to improve the accuracy o

关 键 词：宜昌市 生境质量 InVEST模型 空间统计 随机森林 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]