基于失稳概率的单体滑坡灾害风险定量评价及其工程应用  

Quantitative risk assessment and its application for individual landslide disaster based on slope failure probability

作　　者：刘东升 吴越 李珂 王艳磊 LIU Dongsheng;WU Yue;LI Ke;WANG Yanlei(Chongqing Bureau of Geology and Minerals Exploration,Chongqing 401121,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Chongqing University of Science and Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and Control,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市地质矿产勘查开发局,重庆401121 [2]重庆科技大学建筑工程学院,重庆401331 [3]重庆大学煤矿灾害动态与控制国家重点实验室,重庆400044

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2024年第4期67-74,共8页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0228)。

摘　　要：对潜在滑坡灾害实施风险评价至关重要,但在实际工程中单体滑坡灾害风险评价仍然以定性评价方法为主,由危险性和损失通过风险矩阵得到定性风险等级,存在风险标准多重性和不连续性的问题,不便于在实际工程中对风险大小进行比较并实施分类处置,还可能导致风险评价结果出现误差,误导风险处置。为此,运用概率模型定量描述滑坡灾害的稳定性,同时考虑承灾体的损失大小,得到单体滑坡灾害风险定量评价指标,提出了滑坡灾害风险曲面及风险等值线的概念,并开发相应的评估计算软件,形成了滑坡灾害风险定量评价方法,消除了传统滑坡风险矩阵带来的风险标准多重性和不连续性,提高了评估的准确性。通过对重庆市奉节县6个单体滑坡进行风险定量评价,验证了所提方法的正确性和可靠性,为滑坡灾害风险评价提供了新的途径。Effective risk assessment of potential landslide disasters is crucial for informed decision-making in engineering projects.In practical engineering,the risk assessment of individual landslide disasters still relies mainly on qualitative evaluation methods.The qualitative risk level is obtained through the risk matrix based on danger and loss,which poses problems of multiple and discontinuous risk standards.This makes it difficult to compare and classify risks in actual engineering,and may also lead to errors in risk assessment results,misleading risk management.To address these issues,a probability model is employed to quantitatively describe the stability of landslide disasters,considering the size of losses to the element at risk.A quantified risk index for individual landslide disasters is obtained,introducing the concept of landslide disaster risk surface and risk contour.Corresponding evaluation and calculation software are developed to form a quantified risk assessment method for landslide disasters,eliminating the multiplicity and discontinuity of risk standards brought about by traditional landslide risk matrices.The accuracy of the evaluation is improved.By conducting quantitative risk assessment on six individual landslides in Fengjie County,Chongqing,the correctness and reliability of the quantitative risk assessment method were verified,providing a new approach for landslide disaster risk assessment.

关 键 词：滑坡灾害 定量风险评价 概率模型 工程应用 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]