有效降雨量在辽宁省内公路水毁风险评价中的应用  

Application of effective rainfall in assessing water damage risk to highways in Liaoning Province

作　　者：林毅[1,2] 马强 张凯 李岚[1] 李嘉宁[1] 陆井龙 肇毓[5] LIN Yi;MA Qiang;ZHANG Kai;LI Lan;LI Jianing;LU Jinglong;ZHAO Yu(Liaoning Province Meteorological Service Center,Shenyang,Liaoning 110166,China;Panjin National Climate Observatory,Panjin,Liaoning 124000,China;Liaoning Transportation Development Center,Shenyang,Liaoning110005,China;Liaoning Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang,Liaoning 110166,China;Liaoning Province Expressway Operation Administration Co.Ltd.,Shenyang,Liaoning 110055,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象服务中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]盘锦国家气候观象台,辽宁盘锦124000 [3]辽宁省交通运输事业发展中心,辽宁沈阳110005 [4]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110166 [5]辽宁省高速公路运营管理有限责任公司,辽宁沈阳110055

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2024年第4期85-92,共8页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：辽宁省气象服务中心山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程2020年建设项目(公路气象灾害风险评估及服务系统建设);2021年辽宁省地方标准《公路地质灾害气象风险预警等级评估》。

摘　　要：文章利用2017—2021年辽宁省降水诱发的高速公路、干线公路损毁记录数据,分析损毁事故发生的时间、空间特征,计算事故发生前有效雨量,并建立公路水毁概率拟合模型。结果表明:降水诱发的辽宁省公路损毁事件一般出现在5—10月,其中7—8月为高发期。公路水毁的发生时间呈现出从西北向东南逐渐延后的规律,事故数量与降水量有较高相关性。辽宁东部、西部为高发区域,丹东、朝阳、葫芦岛、本溪为省内高发地区。对比多种方法,公路水毁概率的拟合效果符合高斯分布概率密度函数。辽宁东部、南部致灾临界雨量值大于中部、北部,相同有效雨量条件下,平原地区发生公路水毁的风险高于山地丘陵地区。对2022年辽宁一次洪涝过程中公路水毁情况进行检验,综合评价结果具有较强的防汛指导作用。This paper utilizes data on the records of damage to expressways and main roads caused by precipitation in Liaoning Province from 2017 to 2021.It analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of damage accidents,calculates the effective rainfall before the occurrence of accidents,and establishes a probability fitting model for road water damage.The results show that precipitation-induced road damage events in Liaoning Province generally occur from May to October,with a peak in July and August.The occurrence of road water damage follows a pattern of gradually delaying from northwest to southeast,and the number of accidents is highly correlated with precipitation.The eastern and western parts of Liaoning are high-incidence areas,with Dandong,Chaoyang,Huludao,and Benxi being the high-incidence areas within the province.Among various methods compared,the fitting effect of the road water damage probability conforms to the Gaussian distribution probability density function.The critical rainfall threshold for disaster in the eastern and southern parts of Liaoning is higher than that in the central and northern parts.Under the same effective rainfall conditions,the risk of road water damage in plain areas is higher than in mountainous and hilly areas.The road water damage situation during a flooding process in Liaoning in 2022 is used for verification,indicating a strong role in flood control guidance.

关 键 词：公路水毁 致灾雨量 风险评价 辽宁省 

分 类 号：U418.54[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]