三芯电缆接头轴向温度反演模型及其材料参数敏感性分析  

An inverse model for axial temperature in three-core cable joints and sensitivity analysis of material parameters

作　　者：曾令诚 孟晨旭 罗海鑫 王伟平 侯澳港 产启中 ZENG Lingcheng;MENG Chenxu;LUO Haixin;WANG Weiping;HOU Aogang;CHAN Qizhong(Zhongshan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Zhongshan,Guangdong 528401,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司中山供电局,广东中山528401 [2]武汉大学电气与自动化学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《浙江电力》2024年第8期94-103,共10页Zhejiang Electric Power

基　　金：智能电网联合基金资助项目(U2066217);南方电网公司科技项目(GDKJXM20220135)。

摘　　要：三芯电缆中间接头热点温度的实时感知对研究电缆安全运行、温升及动态载流能力评估具有重要意义。因此,以10 kV三芯电缆中间接头为研究对象,针对不同型号中间接头的结构、材料及现场工艺分散性的实际情况,构建了电缆接头温度场仿真模型,分析了中间接头的温度场分布规律。建立了基于轴向热流的导体轴向温度统一反演模型。采用单因子变化与正交组合方式,分析了材料参数分散性对接头导体轴向反演模型的拟合度及灵敏度的影响。仿真结果表明,轴向温度反演模型的灵敏度系数和拟合优度变化均较小,对于不同结构、材料及现场工艺分散性具有较好的鲁棒性。Real-time sensing of hot spot temperature in three-core cable joints is of significant importance for study⁃ing operation safety of cables,temperature rise,and dynamic load carrying capacity assessment.Therefore,focus⁃ing on 10 kV three-core cable joints and considering the variations in structures,materials,and on-site process for different types of joints,the paper constructs a simulation model for cable joint temperature fields and analyzes the temperature field distribution rules of the joints.Moreover,the paper establishes a unified inverse model for axial temperature of conductor based on axial heat flow.By employing single factor variation and orthogonal combination methods,the paper analyzes the impact of material parameter variations on the fitting degree and sensitivity of the axial inverse model for joint conductors.Simulation results demonstrate that the sensitivity coefficient and fitting goodness of the inverse model for axial temperature vary slightly,indicating good robustness for different structural,material,and on-site process variations.

关 键 词：三芯电缆 温度场 轴向温度反演模型 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TM247[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]