光伏出力序列场景生成新方法  

Novel Method for Scenario Generation of Daily Photovoltaic Output Sequence

作　　者：马骞[1] 辛阔[1] 王子强[1] 袁泉 刘春晓[1] MA Qian;XIN Kuo;WANG Ziqiang;YUAN Quan;LIU Chunxiao(China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510663,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南方电网有限责任公司,广州510663

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2024年第8期60-69,共10页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：南方电网公司重点创新项目(ZDKJXM20210044)。

摘　　要：面向更精准的中长期电力电量平衡校验,提出横纵向融合及人为指定持续极端日的光伏出力场景生成新方法。首先,依据日辐照度特征指标及聚类把历史数据划分为多个极端日和多个典型日;然后,利用马氏链生成下一个月横向辐照度日类型序列及特征指标序列的基础上,提出基于日类型出现概率及日类型允许转换矩阵的辐照度日类型序列生成方法,生成下一个月纵向日类型序列及特征指标序列,并将横纵向数据进行融合;最后,基于优化方法及光电转化模型生成月度光伏出力场景,并在此基础上提出人为指定持续极端日光伏出力序列场景生成方法。算例表明所提算法能更好地为运行调度提供参考。Aimed at a more accurate medium-and long-term power balance verification,a novel method for generating photovoltaic(PV)output scenarios based on transverse and longitudinal fusion and manually specified continuous extreme days is proposed.First,the historical data is divided into several extreme days and several typical days according to the characteristic index of daily irradiance and clustering.Then,based on the transverse irradiance day type sequence and characteristic index sequence in the next month which are generated using the Markov chain,a method to generate the irradiance day type sequence based on the occurrence probability of day type and the allowable day type conversion matrix is put forward to generate the longitudinal irradiance day type sequence and the characteristic index sequence in the next month,and the transverse and longitudinal data are further fused.Finally,the monthly PV output scenarios are generated based on the optimization method and the irradiance-power conversion model.On this basis,the method for generating PV output sequence scenarios based on manually specified continuous extreme days is also formulated.The results of an example show that the proposed algorithm can provide a better reference for operation scheduling.

关 键 词：光伏日出力序列场景 横纵向融合 日类型 允许的日类型转换矩阵 人为指定持续极端日 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]