广西壮族自治区春节假期城际交通需求分析  

Demand Analysis of Intercity Transport During the Spring Festival Holiday in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

作　　者：霍佳琪 陈越[2] 周晨静 尚永毅 何廷全 HUO Jiaqi;CHEN Yue;ZHOU Chenjing;SHANG Yongyi;HE Tingquan(Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Guangzhou University,School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangxi Xinfazhan Communication Group Company Limited,Nanning 530029,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124 [2]广州大学土木与交通工程学院,广州510006 [3]广西新发展交通集团有限公司,南宁530029

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第8期14-22,共9页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：广西壮族自治区交通运输厅科技示范工程(广西高速公路交通拥堵防治智能决策系统工程);广西重点研发计划(2021AB22078)。

摘　　要：运用2024年广西壮族自治区内收费站数据分析广西壮族自治区2024年春节假期城际交通需求特征。对城际交通需求的时间空间特性进行分析,了解2024年春节假期期间城际交通的时间空间变化趋势;利用奇异值分解降维算法对城际客流的时空OD矩阵进行降维分解,降维后识别出3种典型的交通需求模式。研究结果表明,2024年春节假期交通需求分为3个模式:日常城际交通需求模式、假期返乡交通需求模式和假期后返城复工复学交通需求模式。对于日常城际交通需求模式,整体交通需求呈稳定趋势;对于假期返乡交通需求模式,春运开始后到春节假期结束前城际交通需求有了明显的增长,但南宁市、桂林市等经济较为发达的城市呈现出负向需求;对于假期后返城复工复学交通需求模式,在春节前几日达到需求最小点,在法定假期结束后的第1天达到需求最大值。该分析为广西壮族自治区应对未来年春节假期的交通需求的变化提供了依据。The data of toll stations within the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in 2024 are used to analyze the characteristics of intercity traffic demand during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.Firstly,the temporal and spatial characteristics of intercity traffic demand are analyzed to understand the overall temporal and spatial trends of intercity traffic during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday;secondly,the spatial and temporal OD matrices of intercity passenger flows are downscaled and decomposed by using the singular value decomposition algorithm,and three traffic demand patterns are identified.The results show that the traffic demand during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 is divided into three modes:the daily intercity traffic demand mode,the traffic demand mode for returning home during the Spring Festival holiday,and the traffic demand mode for resuming work and school in the opposite city after the Spring Festival holiday.For the daily intercity traffic demand pattern,the overall traffic demand shows a stable trend;for the Spring Festival holiday homecoming traffic demand pattern,there is a significant increase in intercity traffic demand from the beginning of the Spring Festival to the end of the Spring Festival holiday,but the more economically developed cities such as Nanning and Guilin show a negative demand;for the post-Spring Festival holiday anti-urban resumption of work and return to school traffic demand pattern,it reaches the minimum point of demand a few days before the Spring Festival,and on the legal demand maximum is reached on the first day after the Spring Festival holiday.This analysis provides a basis for the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region to cope with the changes in traffic demand during the Spring Festival holiday in the coming years.

关 键 词：春节假期出行 交通需求 奇异值分解 OD时空特性 交通需求模式 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]