考虑心理因素的摩托车驾驶人风险驾驶行为影响分析  

Analysis of the Influence of Motorcyclists Risky Driving Behavior Considering Psychological Factors

作　　者：肖醌 马社强 赵丹 田婧 XIAO Kun;MA Sheqiang;ZHAO Dan;TIAN Jing(School of Traffic Management,People s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京100038

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第8期95-104,共10页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：公安交管大数据资源库建设与应用(2022SJKJ06)。

摘　　要：为探究摩托车驾驶人风险驾驶行为影响因素,首先对B市2014—2021年摩托车交通事故中摩托车驾驶人风险驾驶行为进行时间序列预测,预测B市2022年摩托车交通事故中摩托车驾驶人风险驾驶行为情况,确定“酒驾醉驾”“超速”等9种摩托车交通事故中摩托车驾驶人主要风险驾驶行为;其次,基于摩托车交通事故中摩托车驾驶人主要风险驾驶行为,编制线上调查问卷,获得有效问卷621份,有效回收率为82.91%,信效度检验合格;最后,构建摩托车驾驶人风险驾驶行为影响因素结构方程模型,模型拟合度较高,分析得到:违规与超速态度对事故及被处罚情况、冲动行为表现、一般违规行为表现回归系数为0.136、0.361、0.500;激情驾驶态度对事故及被处罚情况、冲动行为表现、一般违规行为表现、失误驾驶行为表现回归系数为0.119、0.368、0.471、0.232;风险感知对冲动行为表现、失误驾驶行为表现回归系数为0.120、0.234;风险感知对激情驾驶态度、违规与超速态度回归系数为0.232、0.203。结果表明安全态度和风险感知与风险驾驶行为呈正相关,风险感知与安全态度呈正相关。To investigate the influencing factors of motorcycle drivers risky driving behaviors,firstly,a time series prediction of motorcycle drivers risky driving behaviors in motorcycle traffic accidents in City B from 2014 to 2021 was carried out,and the risky driving behaviors of motorcycle drivers in motorcycle traffic accidents in City B in 2022 were predicted.The main risky driving behaviors of motorcycle drivers in motorcycle traffic accidents were identified as“drunk driving”,“speeding”and other 9 types of motorcycle traffic accidents.Secondly,based on the main risky driving behaviors of motorcycle drivers in motorcycle traffic accidents,an online questionnaire was compiled,and 621 valid questionnaires were obtained,with an effective recovery rate of 82.91%,which passed the reliability test.Finally,the structural equation model of motorcycle drivers risky driving behavior influencing factors was constructed,and the model fit was high,and the analysis obtained the following:the regression coefficients of violation and speeding attitudes on accidents and punished situations,impulsive behavior performance,and general violation behavior performance were 0.136,0.361,and 0.500;the passionate driving attitudes on accidents and punished situations,impulsive behavior performance,and general violation behavior performance,0.119,0.368,0.471,0.232;the regression coefficients of risk perception on the performance of impulsive behavior,the performance of failure to drive are 0.120,0.234;the regression coefficients of risk perception on the attitude of passionate driving,the attitude of violation and speeding are 0.232,0.203.The results indicate that the safety attitudes and risk perception are positively correlated with risky driving behaviors,and risk perception is positively correlated with risky driving behaviors.were positively correlated,and risk perception was positively correlated with safety attitude.

关 键 词：交通管理工程 交通风险影响因素 结构方程模型 摩托车驾驶人 风险驾驶行为 

分 类 号：U491.25[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]