兰州市“两抢一盗”犯罪空间分布及影响因素分析  

Spatial Distribution and Influence Factor Analysis of“Two Robberies and One Theft”Crimes in Lanzhou City

作　　者：王唐静 李霞[1,2] 张乐艺[1] WANG Tangjing;LI Xia;ZHANG Leyi(School of Earth Science and Resources,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;School of Land Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地球科学与资源学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学土地工程学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2024年第8期23-27,32,共6页Geospatial Information

基　　金：西安市科技平台与人才支撑计划(211835220576)。

摘　　要：利用核密度分析、Pearson相关系数和地理探测器,围绕社会经济和人类活动环境因子,基于因子独立与因子交互联合探索兰州中心城区“两抢一盗”犯罪的时空差异与影响因素。结论如下:(1)研究区两抢一盗犯罪案件主要发生在黄河南岸,呈现出多高发中心和由多中心向外环状渐次降低的格局。(2)无论昼夜,商业都是影响犯罪的主要影响因素,并且任意2种影响因子间交互作用都表现为双因子增强,双因子交互可以增加对犯罪的解释力。同时商业因素与任意环境因素两两交互的解释力都排在所有交互解释力前列,该因素不仅自身对犯罪影响巨大,而且与环境因素交互作用很强,是犯罪发生的重要催化剂。We explored the spatio-temporal differences and influence factors of“two robberies and one theft”crimes in the central urban area of Lanzhou based on the combination of independent and interactive factors.The conclusions show that①the crime cases of“two robberies and one theft”in the study area mainly occur on the south bank of the Yellow River,showing a pattern of multiple high incidence centers and a gradual decrease from multiple centers to the outer ring.②Regardless of day and night,commerce is the main influence factor affecting crime,and the interaction between any two influence factors shows a two-factor enhancement,and the two-factor interaction can increase the explanatory power of crime.At the same time,the explanatory power of two interactions between commercial factors and any environmental factors are ranked at the top of all interactions,and the factor not only has a great influence on crime itself,but also interacts strongly with environmental factors,which is an important catalyst for the occurrence of crime.

关 键 词：两抢一盗 空间分布 影响因素 地理探测器 因子探测 因子交互 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]