基于非连续兰彻斯特方程的战役态势预测方法  

Campaign Situation Prediction Method Based on Discontinuous Lanchester Equation

作　　者：吕学志 LYU Xuezhi(Unit 32179 of PLA,Beijing 100021,China)

机构地区：[1]解放军32179部队,北京100021

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2024年第7期58-63,69,共7页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：全军军事理论科研基金资助项目(JJ2021D13-A008)。

摘　　要：战役态势预测是态势认知中的重要内容,也是情报分析的核心工作,对于战役行动具有重要意义。提出一种基于非连续兰彻斯特方程的战役态势预测方法。针对可以影响战场态势变化规律的重要事件,构建了不连续兰彻斯特方程,并针对兵力变化、效能变化、模式变化对兰彻斯特方程进行了拓展。构建了研究案例,验证了方法的可行性与有效性。该方法具有简单、直观、容易实现的优点,可以快速针对战役态势影响因素的变化对战役态势进行预测。Campaign situation prediction is an important content of situation awareness and also the core work of intelligence analysis,it is of great significance for campaign operations.A method of campaign situation prediction based on discontinuous Lanchester equation is proposed.A discontinuous Lanchester equation is constructed for the important events that can affect the law of battlefield situation change,and Lanchester is extended for force changes,effectiveness changes,and mode changes.Research cases are constructed,and the feasibility and practicability of method is verified.This method offers the advantages of simplicity,intuition,and ease of implementation.It can quickly predict the battle situation according to the influential factors of the campaign situation.

关 键 词：兰彻斯特方程 战役态势 态势预测 态势认知 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]