基于整体规划建模的公平性区域货运碳税规划方法  

An Equity-oriented Planning Method for Freight Carbon Tax Base on Integrated Modelling Framework

作　　者：王宗保 钟鸣[1,2] WANG Zongbao;ZHONG Ming(Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心,武汉430063

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2024年第4期12-22,共11页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB2601300);国家自然科学基金(52172309)。

摘　　要：针对货运碳税政策影响的公平性问题,本文提出一种基于整体规划建模的公平性区域货运碳税规划方法。该方法使用双层规划模型,上层模型使用Dagum基尼系数分析货运碳税政策对不同地区制造业区位影响,并据此优化各地区的货运碳税价格,提升政策影响的公平性;下层模型通过改进土地利用—交通整体规划模型,模拟区域中社会经济活动、交通及货运碳排放之间的交互关系。由于决策变量与目标函数之间的复杂关系,本文提出一种贝叶斯优化算法求解模型。拓展所使用的土地利用—交通整体规划模型,改进后的模型不仅能一体化分析货运碳税政策对区域货运减排和产业区位的综合影响,而且能在政策制定中考虑不同地区综合运输网络和产业区位的差异,确保政策影响的公平性。以长江经济带为例的研究结果表明,在80元·t^(-1)的货运碳税政策下,不同地区的制造业区位受到的影响差异显著,区域间净差异对总体基尼系数贡献率为74.63%。相比之下,本方法通过差异化区域货运碳税政策,在同等货运减排目标下,有效降低了区域间净差异,将总体基尼系数由0.180降至0.115,较好地平衡了货运碳税政策对长江经济带各地区制造业区位影响的公平性。This paper proposes an equity-oriented planning method for the freight carbon tax,which is developed based on an integrated modelling approach to study its potential impacts on regional equity.The proposed method uses a bi-level programming model.The upper-level model uses the Dagum Gini coefficient to evaluate the equity of the freight carbon tax policy on industrial locations across regions.Based on this evaluation,it optimizes the freight carbon tax rates for each region to enhance their equity.The lower-level model simulates the interaction among regional socio-economic activities,transportation,and environment by adapting an integrated land use-transportation model.Due to the complex interaction between decision variables and objective functions,this study proposes a Bayesian optimization method to solve the above model.Extending from the above integrated land-use and transportation model,the proposed model not only provides a comprehensive impact analysis of the freight carbon tax policies on freight emission and industrial locations,but also takes the equity of such policies onto regional multimodal transportation networks and industrial locations into policy formulation.Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example,the findings suggest that a freight carbon tax policy of 80 Yuan per ton could intensify the adverse effects on the utility of industrial locations.Specifically,the net difference between regions accounts for 74.63%of the total Gini coefficients.In contrast,the differentiated freight carbon tax policy formulated by the model can not only effectively reduce the net difference between regions under the same freight emission reduction target,but also decrease the total Gini coefficient from 0.180 to 0.115,which balances the equity impact of the freight carbon tax policies on the location of manufacturing industries in different regions.

关 键 词：综合运输 整体规划建模 贝叶斯优化 公平性 碳税 

分 类 号：U169[交通运输工程]