不同预见期气候指数的干旱可预测性研究  

Drought Predictability of Climatic Indices in Different Forecast Periods

作　　者：刘茜元 何海[1] 张璐 刘臻晨 何健[3] 吴志勇[1] LIU Xi-yuan;HE Hai;ZHANG Lu;LIU Zhen-chen;HE Jian;WU Zhi-yong(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]复旦大学大气与海洋科学系,上海200438 [3]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第8期22-27,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U2240225);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B220205007)。

摘　　要：为了探索可靠的干旱过程预测方法,以江苏省为研究区域,在识别历史干旱事件的基础上,提取干旱发生前期大尺度海气相互作用因子,形成0~12个月不同预见期的气候指数,将其分为大气环流类、海温类和大气海温综合类3个类别,分别建立具有0~12个月不同预见期的偏最小二乘回归干旱预测模型,通过模型后预测验证,定量分析干旱前期不同预见期气候指数对季节干旱过程的可预测性。结果表明,0~12个月不同预见期内,干旱同期“大气环流”模型对1994年夏秋季干旱等级预测较好;预见期为0~9个月的“海温”组的模型能预测出2010~2011年冬春连旱的过程变化,且结果稳定;干旱前期9~12个月西太平洋暖池的热力状况及西太平洋副热带高压,在不同预见期的干旱预测模型中均占较大权重,且在3个月预见期的干旱预测模型中所占权重最大,可作为江苏省季节尺度气象干旱的可预测性来源。研究成果可为季节尺度的干旱预测和干旱灾害综合防范提供科学依据。In order to explore a reliable drought prediction method,large scale precedent climatic indices closely related to droughts were initially selected based on the identification of historical drought events in Jiangsu Province,and different predictors with 0-12 month lagged were obtained.Subsequently,these predictors were classified into three groups,which were namely the atmospheric circulation pattern group,SST-based group and the atmospheric hybrid group.These three groups of different forecast period predictors were used to build partial least squares regression(PLSR)models with 0-12 monthly forecast period.The verified model was used to quantificationally analyze the predictability of seasonal drought considering the climatic indices of different pre-drought forecast periods.The results show that the predictability of these three groups models with 0-12 monthly forecast periods had various performance.The PLSR model based on 0-month-lagged circulation pattern predictors could predict drought grades during the 1994 summer-autumn droughts well.Furthermore,the PLSR models based on SST-based predictors with 0-9 months pre-drought could indicate development of the whole 2010-2011 winter-spring drought process,and the predicted processes were steady.The thermal conditions of the Western Pacific warm pool and the Western Pacific Subtropical High pre-drought 0-9 months took the most weights among these three groups of models with different forecast periods,and the maximum weight of those indices was of PLSR model with 3 months forecast periods,which can be used as the predictable indices for seasonal drought prediction in Jiangsu Province.The research results can provide scientific basis for seasonal drought prediction and comprehensive prevention of drought disasters.

关 键 词：季节干旱预测 大气环流指数 海温指数 预见期 可预测性 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]