基于抗旱保供的金沙江下游-三峡梯级2022年极枯水年优化调度反演分析  

Optimal Operation of Cascade Reservoirs in the Lower Reaches of Jinsha River and Three Gorges in 2022 Extreme Drought Year Based on Drought Resistance and Guarantee of Power Supply

作　　者：黄爱国 谭政宇 胡挺 HUANG Ai-guo;TAN Zheng-yu;HU(Ting China Three Gorges Group Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北宜昌443100

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2024年第8期178-181,32,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704188);国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3002705)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化加剧演变的背景下,今后干旱威胁或将成为常态。聚焦2022年长江流域性干旱,以金沙江下游-三峡梯级水库为研究对象,在流域雨水情和水库调度实况分析的基础上,以水资源高效利用为目标,通过优化水库群调度方式,反演分析进一步减轻旱灾的可行性,为今后调度方式的优化提供参考。分别以梯级水库少弃水兼顾防洪安全和梯级水库零弃水为原则设定两种方案,模拟分析梯级补水和发电效益,结果表明两种方案下梯级水库在抗旱保供电关键期防洪风险可控,且能为下游分别多补水85.6×10^(8)、157.6×10^(8)m^(3),增发电量58×10^(8)、98×10^(8)kW·h;全年分别减少梯级弃水141×10^(8)、215×10^(8)m^(3),增发电量74×10^(8)、122×10^(8)kW·h。可见在预报极枯来水条件下,梯级水库采取缓消落方式存蓄部分水量,可有效提高供水、供电保障程度。In the background of intensified global climate change,drought may become normal in the future.Focused on the extreme drought in 2022,the lower reaches of Jinsha River and Three Gorges cascade are taken as the research object.By optimizing the operation of reservoirs and conducting inverse analysis,the feasibility of further reducing drought disasters is analyzed.Based on the analysis of the hydrological situation and the actual dispatch of reservoirs,two schemes are set up to simulate the benefits of power generation and water supply for the aim of efficient utilization of water resources.Respectively balancing flood control safety and less abandoned water scheme and zero abandoned water scheme.The results show that flood control risks of cascade is safe during the critical period of drought resistance and power supply.The cascade can replenish 8.56 billion and 15.76 billion cubic meter of water for the downstream.5.8 billion and 9.8 billion kW·h of additional power can be generated.Throughout the year,14.1 billion and 21.5 billion cubic meter of cascade abandoned water is respectively reduced,7.4 billion and 12.2 billion kW·h of additional power can be generated.Under the condition of extremely drought forecast in flood season,the guarantee rate of power generation and water supply of cascade can be improved by adopting the way of slow dissipation to store some water.

关 键 词：梯级水库 调度反演 发电供水 极枯水年 

分 类 号：TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]