震源运动学破裂过程对马尼拉俯冲带潜在海啸的影响研究  

Impact of Earthquake Source Kinematic Rupture Process on the Potential Tsunami in the Manila Subduction Zone

作　　者：任叶飞[1,2] 刘杰 刘也 王宏伟 温瑞智[1,2] REN Yefei;LIU Jie;LIU Ye;WANG Hongwei;WEN Ruizhi(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150000,Heilongjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150000,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150000 [2]地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《地震研究》2024年第4期541-552,共12页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1901602);国家自然科学基金项目(51278473);环保部公益性行业科研专项项目(201209040);东北亚地震海啸和火山合作研究计划项目(ZRH2014-11).

摘　　要：提高对马尼拉俯冲带海啸生成机制的认识对研究我国东南沿海地区海洋防灾减灾具有重要意义。目前,大型俯冲带震源破裂的运动过程对海啸生成的影响逐渐受到关注,但震源运动学破裂过程对马尼拉俯冲带潜在海啸的影响尚未明确。基于马尼拉俯冲带的典型破裂模型,对不同破裂速度和方向设定的海啸情景开展数值模拟,评估分析破裂速度和方向对海啸波传播特征的影响。结果表明:破裂方向相同时,破裂速度越慢,海啸波到时越晚,峰值波高越小;破裂速度相同时,与不考虑破裂运动过程的模拟结果相比,破裂前方的场点峰值波高更大,距离初始破裂位置更近的场点到时越早;不同设定情境下,沿海场点的海啸波到时最大相差10 min左右,峰值波高最大值约为最小值的1.5倍。Enhancing the understanding of the tsunami generation mechanism in the Manila subduction zone is of great significance to marine disaster prevention and reduction in the southeastern coastal areas of China.So far,scientistshave shown great concern about the impact of the kinematic source rupture process in the large-scale subduction zone on the tsunami generation.However,the impact of the earthquake source kinematic rupture process in the Manila subduction zone has not been investigated clearly yet.Based on the typical scenario of rupture model of the Manila subduction zone,this study conducts numerical simulations of tsunami scenarios with different rupture velocities and directions separately.It aims to evaluate and analyze the influence of rupture velocity and rupture direction on the propagation characteristics of the tsunami wave.The results show that when the rupture direction keeps the same,the slower the rupture velocity,the later the tsunami wave arrives and the smaller the peak wave height.When the rupture velocity keeps the same,the peak wave height at the sites in front of the rupture is much higher,and the wave at sites closer to the initial rupture location will arrive earlier,compared with the simulation results that do not consider the rupture kinematic process.Among the different scenarios,the arrival time of tsunami waves at the coastal sites may differ 10 minutes at most,and the maximum peak-wave value is about 1.5 times as large as the minimum peak-wave value.

关 键 词：破裂速度 破裂方向 马尼拉俯冲带 海啸 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P315.94[天文地球—地震学]