基于频率统计法的短历时可能最大降水估算  

Estimation of short-duration possible maximum precipitation based on frequency statistics method

作　　者：赵丽平 邢西刚 何晓燕[1,2] 刘希琛 ZHAO Liping;XING Xigang;HE Xiaoyan;LIU Xichen(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038;General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100120)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038 [3]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第8期17-21,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：中国水利水电科学研究院减灾中心青年创新人才推进计划项目;国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3006404)。

摘　　要：短历时可能最大降水(PMP)是核电厂设计排水设施时的主要依据。在分析某滨海核电厂厂址区域暴雨特性、天气成因和站点资料的基础上,采用P-Ⅲ型曲线和矩法进行不同频率短历时降雨数值统计计算,然后通过不同历时10000年一遇降雨设计值与24 h 10000年一遇设计值进行比值计算分析得到不同短历时可能最大降水,最后通过与国内外特大暴雨记录和其他核电厂短历时PMP成果进行对比分析,表明计算结果合理,可为其他地区短历时PMP分析计算提供参考和借鉴。The Short-duration probable maximum precipitation(PMP)is the main basis for the design of drainage facilities in nuclear power plants.Based on the analysis of the rainstorm characteristics,weather causes and site data of a coastal nuclear power plant site,this paper used the Pearson-Ⅲ curve and moment method to calculate the numerical statistics of short-duration rainfall with different frequencies,and then calculated and analyzed the ratio of the design value of different durations of once-inten-thousands-year rainfall and the design value of 24-hour once-in-ten-thousands-year rainfall to obtain the possible maximum precipitation with different short durations.Finally,by comparing with the records of heavy rainstorms at home and abroad and the short-duration PMP results of other nuclear power plants,the calculation results were reasonable,which can provide reference for the analysis and calculation of short-duration PMP in other regions.

关 键 词：可能最大降水(PMP) 短历时 P-Ⅲ型曲线 矩法 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]