李家岩水库施工期洪水预报方案编制  

Preparation of flood forecast scheme during the construction period of Lijiayan Reservoir

作　　者：丁勇 陆玉忠[2] 徐海卿[2] 刘可新[2] 田阳 DING Yong;LU Yuzhong;XU Haiqing;LIU Kexin;TIAN Yang(Chengdu Lijiayan Reservoir Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 611200;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing IWHR Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]成都市李家岩水库开发有限公司,成都611200 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院北京中水科水电科技开发有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第8期47-54,共8页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：针对李家岩水库施工期洪水预报方案编制的技术路线和相关成果进行总结。根据李家岩水情测报系统站网选取预报依据站,结合流域地形及水系进行分块和划分计算单元,选择三水源新安江水文模型进行模型参数率定,对铁索站10场次洪水的模拟结果进行统计分析,并初步确定预报方案精度等级达到乙等。开发实时洪水预报功能进行方案验证分析并提出相关应用改进建议。由于收集的历史洪水资料年限及数量均没有达到规范要求,且存在雨量站资料缺失、水文控制站流量精度难以校核、流域未建代表性蒸发站等问题,会在一定程度上影响模型参数率定及其预报精度。期望该预报方案在实际应用中通过进一步积累洪水资料,能进行定期修订并达到较好成效。This paper summarizes the technical route and achievements in the preparation of the flood forecasting scheme during the construction period of Lijiayan Reservoir.According to the hydrological station network of the Lijiayan water regime monitoring and forecasting system,the forecasting reference station is selected,and the basin terrain and water systems are combined for partitioning and dividing the calculation units.The Xin'anjiang hydrological model with three water sources is selected for model parameter calibration.The simulation results of 10 flood events at Tiesuo Station are statistically analyzed,and it is initially determined that the accuracy level of the forecasting scheme reaches grade B.The real-time flood forecasting function is developed for scheme verification analysis and relevant application improvement suggestions are put forward.Due to the fact that the years and quantity of historical flood data collected do not meet the requirements of the specifications,and there are problems such as missing data of rainfall stations,the difficulty in checking the flow accuracy of hydrological control stations,and the absence of representative evaporation stations in the basin,it will affect the model parameter calibration and its forecasting accuracy to a certain extent.It is expected that this forecasting scheme can be regularly revised and achieve better results through further accumulation of flood data in practical applications.

关 键 词：李家岩水库 施工期 洪水预报 新安江模型 方案编制 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV697[水利工程—水文学及水资源]