新贸易保护主义视角下中国新能源汽车产业链安全风险传导与防范  

Security Risk Transmission and Prevention of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain from the Perspective of New Trade Protectionism

作　　者：叶瑞克[1,2] 江紫婷 钟诗宇 林辰霞 YE Ruike;JIANG Ziting;ZHONG Shiyu;LIN Chenxia(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China;Institute for Industrial System Modernization,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学现代化产业体系研究院,杭州310023

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2024年第4期1-11,共11页Petroleum and new energy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金年度项目“后补贴时代新能源汽车推广应用政策研究”(17BGL166);浙江省社科规划重点项目“我国新能源汽车产业链风险预警防控机制与优链策略研究”(24NDJC25Z);浙江省社科联研究课题“新能源汽车产业竞争力评价:指标体系、国别比较与政策建议”(2023B003)。

摘　　要：产业链安全是现代化产业体系建设的关键,是有效抵御外部冲击的重要保障。通过剖析新能源汽车领域欧美新贸易保护主义的表现形式,识别出相关安全风险,进而厘清传导机制,最后提出风险防范及应对策略。研究结果表明:就新能源汽车产业链而言,新贸易保护主义主要表现为,欧美国家从技术、经贸、组织与规则多个层面对中国新能源汽车产业链的限制;风险识别发现新能源汽车产业链面临技术封锁风险、贸易壁垒风险、系统性风险和市场偏转风险;相关风险主要通过供给冲击、需求收缩和预期转弱三条传导路径作用于产业链。基于上述结论,针对新能源汽车产业链各环节以及全链预警防范提出了应对策略。The security of the industrial chain is the key to construction of modern industrial system and important guarantee for effectively resisting external shocks.This paper deeply analyzes the manifestation of new trade protectionism,identifies the security risks of China’s new energy vehicle industry chain,reveals the transmission mechanism,and proposes risk prevention and countermeasures.The research results indicate that the new trade protectionism mainly manifests as imposing limitations on China’s new energy vehicle industrial chain from such multiple levels as technology,economy&trade,organization,and rules.It faces technological blockade risks,trade barrier risks,systemic risks,and market deviations risks from risk identification.Transmission mechanism acting on the industrial chain through such three paths as supply shock,demand contraction,and weakened expectations.Based on above results,it proposes the countermeasures on all links of new energy vehicle industrial chain and warning and prevention of the e ntire chain.

关 键 词：新贸易保护主义 产业链风险 风险传导 风险防范 优链策略 新能源汽车 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]