基于STIRPAT模型的吉林省石化行业碳排放影响因素研究  

Research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from petrochemical industry in Jilin Province based on the STIRPAT model

作　　者：李菲菲[1] 徐绘薇 崔金栋[1] LI Feifei;XU Huiwei;CUI Jindong(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学经济管理学院,吉林吉林132012

出　　处：《综合智慧能源》2024年第8期12-19,共8页Integrated Intelligent Energy

基　　金：吉林省社会科学基金项目(2022J10)。

摘　　要：石化行业作为典型的高碳排产业,研究其碳排放规律及影响有助于我国“双碳”目标的实现。以吉林省2002—2021年石化行业中5个子行业的原煤、洗精煤、焦炭、汽油、柴油、原油等9类碳排放源数据为基础,研究吉林省石化行业碳排放的时间演变特征及碳排放结构。采用扩展的随机性环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型以及岭回归参数估计方法,选取经济增加值等6个指标,深入探讨各因素对吉林省石化行业碳排放量的作用机制及影响。根据实证分析结果,为推进吉林省石化行业低碳发展,促进石化产业碳减排,提出3个建议:提升能源效率,改善能源消费结构;优化投资项目,推动低碳项目发展;采取循环经济,进行环境影响评估。In view that petrochemical industry is a typical industry of high carbon emissions,studying the variation law and influencing factors of its carbon emissions can facilitate the implement of China's"dual carbon"strategy.Based on the data from the nine carbon emission sources which include raw coal,clean coal,coke,gasoline,diesel and crude oil in five sub industries of petrochemical industry in Jilin Province from 2002 to 2021,the temporal evolution characteristics and composition of the carbon emissions are studied.Six indicators affecting the carbon emissions from petrochemical industry in Jilin Province,including economic value added,are selected,and their impacts and mechanisms are deeply studied based on the expanded STIRPAT model and ridge regression parameter estimation.According to empirical analysis results,three suggestions are proposed to promote the low-carbon development and carbon reduction of petrochemical industry in Jilin Province:improving energy efficiency and energy consumption structure;selecting valuable investment projects and low-carbon projects;adopting circular economy and conducting environmental impact assessments.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 石化行业 能源结构 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 能源效率 能源消费结构 循环经济 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]