基于风、光联合出力仿真的多能联供系统鲁棒机会约束优化研究  

Study on Robust Chance Constrained Optimization of Multi-energy Supply System Based on Wind and Solar Power Combined Output Simulation

作　　者：包哲 李薇 张潇方 安宗元 许野 Bao Zhe;Li Wei;Zhang Xiaofang;An Zongyuan;Xu Ye(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学环境科学与工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2024年第8期1895-1913,共19页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(62203171);中央高校基金(2021MS039)。

摘　　要：为了有效规避风、光出力不确定性造成的供需失衡风险、促进多能联供系统的持续、稳定和健康发展,联合使用Copula理论、机会约束规划方法和鲁棒优化算法,构建了考虑风、光联合出力不确定性的多能联供系统鲁棒机会约束优化调度模型。结果显示:该模型不仅可以准确识别和表征风、光联合出力分布概率,制定低违约风险条件下的风、光出力策略,还可以通过调整供给侧能源输出结构,生成鲁棒性最优的多能联供系统运行方案,显著提高系统运行的稳定性,降低风、光不确定性造成的经济风险。In order to effectively avoid potential imbalance between supply and demand caused by the uncertainty of wind and solar power outputs,and promote the sustained development of the multi-energy supply system,a robust chance-constrained optimization model is developed for identifying optimal operation strategies under complexities and uncertainties through incorporating Copula theory,chance-constrained programming,and robust programming within a general framework.The results show that this model can not only accurately characterize the distribution probability of combined outputs of wind and solar power and formulate the operational strategies under low default risk conditions,but also reduce the proportion of highrisk energy output by adjusting the energy output structure on the supply side,and generate a robust operation scheme for the multi-energy supply system,which significantly improves the stability of the system operation,and reduces the economic risks caused by the uncertainty of wind and light.

关 键 词：多能联供系统 不确定性 COPULA理论 机会约束 鲁棒优化 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]