中国制造业对美国中间品供应链依赖效应研究  

A study on the dependence of China's manufacturing industry on the U.S.supply chain

作　　者：李鑫茹 蒋雪梅[1] 杨翠红[2,3,4] LI Xin-ru;JIANG Xue-mei;YANG Cui-hong(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2024年第5期13-36,共24页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71873091,72273093,72003133,71974183,71988101);国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(20&ZD055,19ZDA062);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9214023)。

摘　　要：本研究利用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)最新公布的2016年区分企业所有权性质的国家间投入产出表,基于反事实分析方法模拟测算美国电子信息行业和全行业不同程度切断对中国的中间品供应而给产业链下游部门带来的产出影响,以此分析中国制造业对美国中间品的供应链依赖效应,同时警示中美脱钩所引致的中国制造业供应链断裂风险。This study utilizes the latest inter-country input-output tables distinguishing enterprise ownership released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)in 2016.Based on the counterfactual analysis method,this study sets up different scenarios for supply chain disruptions between the U.S.and China.The output impacts of the disruptions on downstream manufacturing industries in China are calculated to evaluate the dependence of China manufacturing on the U.S.supply chain,particularly on the U.S.electronic information industry supply chain.The study also alerts to the possible supply chain crisis caused by Sino-US decoupling.

关 键 词：供应链依赖 中间品进口 中美脱钩 电子产业链 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]