中国炼化行业氢能利用绿色化发展前景分析  

Prospect of greening hydrogen energy utilization in China’s refining andchemical industry

作　　者：朱旭敏 冯连勇[1] ZHU Xumin;FENG Lianyong(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学[北京]经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第7期69-75,112,共8页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:72274212)研究成果。

摘　　要：设计一个处理量约为全国处理量1.35%的标准炼化企业,在2022年数据基础上,选取煤制氢、天然气制氢、工业副产制氢、电解水制氢4条制氢路线,设立基准情景、一般转型情景和加速转型情景3种情景,对2022—2060年标准炼化企业用氢来源进行情景预测。影响用氢的驱动因素包括对氢的需求量和技术进步,影响用氢的制约因素包括制氢成本和碳排放。预测结果表明,未来中国炼化行业氢气将供大于求,天然气制氢在短期内将作为氢气的来源;长期来看,随着绿电价格的下降,传统制氢技术成本优势不再,中长期内电解水制氢路线将会成为主流技术路线,迎来高速增长期,电解水制氢在实现技术突破后有望成为供氢的主流来源。The paper designs a standard refining enterprise with a processing capacity of about 1.35%of the national processing capacity and selects such four hydrogen production routes on the basis of 2022 data as hydrogen from coal,hydrogen from natural gas,hydrogen from industrial by-products,and hydrogen from electrolyzed water,and establishes such three scenarios as the baseline scenario,the general transition scenario,and the accelerated transition scenario,to project the hydrogen use of the standard refining enterprise from 2022 to 2060.The driving factors affecting the source of hydrogen use include the demand for hydrogen and technological progress,while the constraints affecting the source of hydrogen use have the cost of hydrogen production and carbon emissions.The results show that hydrogen supply will exceed demand in China’s refining industry in the future and hydrogen from natural gas will be used as the main source of hydrogen in the short term.In the long term,the cost advantage of traditional hydrogen production technology is no longer available as the price of green power decreases,the route of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water will become the mainstream technology route in the medium to long term,ushering in a period of rapid growth,and hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is expected to become a mainstream source of hydrogen supply after technological breakthroughs.

关 键 词：能源转型 氢能利用 氢气生产 结构优化 情景预测 炼化行业 

分 类 号：TQ116.2[化学工程—无机化工] F426.7[经济管理—产业经济]