基于个体的校园新冠疫情管控措施优化研究  

Individual-Based Research on Optimization of Campus COVID-19 Control Measures

作　　者：谭墍元[1] 李廷帅 郭伟伟[1] 李云丛 TAN Xi-yuan;LI Ting-shuai;GUO Wei-wei;LI Yun-cong(College of Electrical and Control Engineering,North China University ofTechnology(Beijing),Beijing 100144,China)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学电气与控制工程学院(北京),北京100144

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2024年第7期341-346,共6页Computer Simulation

基　　金：城市交通智能治理大数据计算平台及应用示范(2018YFB1601100)。

摘　　要：为了优化高校应对新冠疫情的管控措施,使用基于活动的个体出行模型结合传染病模型搭建可生成附有疫情传播信息的个体出行数据的仿真平台,在平台中验证高校应对疫情的管控措施效果并加以优化。对常态扫码管控进行优化后,验证无症状感染者比例及R0等特性均与奥密克戎毒株相符,且优化后每日确诊病例数,累计确诊病例数峰值及峰值时间均有改善。采用个体出行的异质模型仿真可更好解释COVID-19爆发的不可忽略的随机性质,采用更严格的扫码管控结合核酸检测优化措施可更好地遏制疫情传播,感染规模可降低约53.11%。Objective:To optimize the control measures of universities in response to COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:An activity-based individual travel model combined with an infectious disease model was used to build a simulation platform that could generate individual travel data with outbreak transmission information,in which the effectiveness of the university's control measures in response to the outbreak was verified and optimized.Results:After optimizing the control of the normal sweeps,we verified that the proportion of asymptomatic infections and the R0 characteristics were consistent with the Omicron strain,and that the number of confirmed cases per day,the peak number of cumulative confirmed cases and the peak time were improved after optimization.Conclusion:Heterogeneous model simulation using individual travel can better explain the non-negligible stochastic nature of COVID-19 outbreaks,and the use of stricter sweep control combined with nucleic acid test optimization measures can better contain the spread of the outbreak and reduce the infection size by approximately 53.11%.

关 键 词：高校疫情 师生出行仿真 异质性 管控措施优化 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]