中国铬矿资源特征及2021—2035年铬供需形势分析  

Chromite ore resources characteristic and analysis of supply and demand situation from 2021 to 2035 in China

作　　者：张照志[1] 潘昭帅 车东 闫强[1] 吴晴 ZHANG Zhaozhi;PAN Zhaoshuai;CHE Dong;YAN Qiang;WU Qing(MNR Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment,Institute of Mineral Resources,CAGS,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,自然资源部成矿作用与资源评价重点实验室,北京100037

出　　处：《中国地质》2024年第4期1191-1209,共19页Geology in China

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目(DD20211405,DD20221694)资助。

摘　　要：【研究目的】铬矿作为我国关键性矿产之一,是支撑我国战略性新兴新兴产业发展的重要矿种。我国铬矿资源匮乏,资源禀赋不佳,产量低,长期以来,铬矿石对外依存度高。研究铬矿未来供需情况,对于铬矿资源产业良性持续发展至关重要。【研究方法】本文对我国铬矿床地质、空间分布和资源储量等特征进行了总结,分析了我国铬矿资源开发利用的历史数据。在此基础上预测了我国铬供应量,并进一步利用铬部门消费法、人均不锈钢产量“S”形法、ARIMA模型法(不锈钢)等预测方法,分高、中、低3种情景对我国2021—2035年不锈钢产量和铬需求量进行了预测。【研究结果】(1)2021—2035年我国矿山铬年预测产量(矿石量)为15~20万t,二次铬预测产量(铬金属量)在182~284万t内;(2)在中情景下,2021—2035年我国铬需求量呈现先增后降的趋势,峰值点为2030年。2021—2030年我国人均不锈钢产量呈上升趋势,2030年到达峰值点,届时人均不锈钢产量35 kg,不锈钢产量5005万t,折铬总需求量945.39万t;之后逐渐下降,到2035年人均不锈钢产量降至30 kg,不锈钢产量4280万t,铬总需求量808.44万t。(3)2021—2035年,我国铬供需形势严峻,矿山铬对外依存度99%以上,若利用二次铬产量,则铬对外依存度降至69%以上。【结论】2021—2035年我国铬供需形势仍将严峻,缺口仍需大量进口矿石来补充。据此,提出加强铬矿地质勘查工作力度、力争实现铬矿找矿突破,重视二次铬回收利用、发展二次铬回收产业,加强铬矿产品储备、保障铬矿产品供应安全,优化铬矿产品结构,利用境外铬矿资源产品等对策结论。本文所形成的认识结论、对策建议对我国编制矿产资源规划、制定铬矿资源管理政策等具有一定的现实意义。This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.Objective Chromium,as one of the critical minerals in China,supports the development of China's emerging industries.China is short of chromium ore resources,poor resource endowment and low production.For a long time,the chrome ore has been highly dependent on foreign countries.It is important for the healthy and sustainable development of chromium ore resource industry to study the future supply and demand of chrome ore.Methods This paper summarizes the geology,spatial distribution,resource reserves and other characteristics of chromium deposits in China,and analyzes the historical data of the development and utilization of chromium resources in China.On this basis,the chromium supply in China is analyzed and predicted.And the stainless steel production and chromium demand in 2021−2035 in China are predicted under three scenarios,namely high,medium and low,by using chromium sector consumption method,S−curve of per capita stainless steel production,ARIMA model method(stainless steel)and other prediction methods.Results(1)The production of chromium in China will be 150,000−200,000 tons,and the secondary chromium will be 1.82−2.84 million tons from 2021 to 2035;(2)Under the medium scenario,the demand for chromium in China from 2021 to 2035 is projected to follow an increasing and then decreasing trend,with the peak occurring in 2030.And,the per capita stainless steel production will keep an upward trend from 2021 to 2030,and will reach its peak in 2030.At that time,the per capita stainless steel production will be 35 kg,the stainless steel production will be 50.05 million tons,and the chromium demand will be 9.45 million production;After that,it will gradually decline.By 2035,the per capita stainless steel production will drop to 30 kg,the stainless steel production will be 42.8 million tons,and the chromium demand will be 8.07 million tons;(3)The supply and demand situation is severe in China from 2021 to 2035,and the external dependence rate of ch

关 键 词：铬矿资源 人均不锈钢产量 不锈钢产量"S"形法 需求预测 供需形势 矿产勘查工程 中国 

分 类 号：F426.1[经济管理—产业经济]