2005-2021年宝山区主要慢性病过早死亡对期望寿命的影响  

Probability of premature death due to major chronic diseases and its impact on life expectancy in Baoshan District from 2005 to 2021

作　　者：李鹏斌 刘世友[1] 孟杨[1] 汪金辰 蔡卫华[1] 茅俭英[1] LI Pengbin;LIU Shiyou;MENG Yang;WANG Jinchen;CAI Weihua;MAO Jianying(Second Department of Chronic Disease Control and Prevention,Baoshan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201901,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市宝山区疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制二科,上海201901

出　　处：《预防医学》2024年第8期693-697,共5页China Preventive Medicine Journal

摘　　要：目的分析上海市宝山区2005—2021年主要慢性病早死概率变化及其对期望寿命的影响,为完善慢性病防控策略提供依据。方法通过上海市疾病预防控制信息系统人口死亡信息登记管理系统收集2005—2021年宝山区户籍居民死亡资料,采用简略寿命表法计算恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病4类慢性病导致的早死概率和居民期望寿命;采用平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析4类慢性病早死概率变化趋势,采用Arriaga分解法分析早死概率变化对期望寿命的影响。结果2005—2021年宝山区居民4类慢性病早死概率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.010%,P<0.05),其中女性(AAPC=-2.551%,P<0.05)下降速度快于男性(AAPC=-0.214%,P<0.05)。居民期望寿命由2005年的80.31岁增加至2021年的84.12岁,其中男性增加了3.40岁,女性增加了4.32岁。恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率下降(AAPC=-1.518%、-1.284%和-4.666%,均P<0.05)分别使居民期望寿命增加0.46、0.11和0.02岁,贡献率分别为12.18%、2.90%和0.63%;其中男性心脑血管疾病早死概率变化使期望寿命下降0.12岁,负向贡献来源于30~39岁和45~59岁年龄组。糖尿病早死概率上升(AAPC=3.731%,P<0.05)使居民期望寿命下降0.11岁,贡献率为-2.90%,其中女性糖尿病早死概率变化使期望寿命增加0.04岁,正向贡献主要来源于65~69岁年龄组,而男性糖尿病早死概率变化使期望寿命下降0.20岁,各年龄组均呈负向贡献。结论2005—2021年上海市宝山区主要慢性病早死概率总体呈下降趋势,期望寿命增加,应重点关注男性糖尿病和心脑血管疾病过早死亡对期望寿命的影响。Objective To analyze the changing trend of premature death of four major chronic diseases and evaluate the impact on life expectancy in Baoshan District,Shanghai Municipality from 2005 to 2021,so as to provide insights into promoting the prevention and control of chronic diseases.Methods Death data of permanent residents in Baoshan District from 2005 to 2021 were collected from the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System.The probability of premature death due to malignant tumors,diabetes,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases,and life expectancy among residents were calculated using life table method.The trends of the probabilities of premature death of four major chronic diseases were analyzed using average annual percent change(AAPC).The impact on life expectancy was assessed using Arriaga decomposition method.Results From 2005 to 2021,the probability of premature death due to four major chronic diseases in Baoshan District showed a tendency towards a decline(AAPC=-1.010%,P<0.05).The decline was more pronounced among females compared to males(AAPC=-2.551%vs.-0.214%,both P<0.05).The life expectancy increased from 80.31 years in 2005 to 84.12 years in 2021,with an increase of 3.40 years in males and 4.32 years in females.The decrease in the probability of premature death due to malignant tumors,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases(AAPC=-1.518%,-1.284%and-4.666%,all P<0.05)increased the life expectancy of the population by 0.46,0.11 and 0.02 years,contributing 12.18%,2.90%and 0.63%,respectively.The changes in the probability of premature death due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in males decreased the life expectancy by 0.12 years,with the negative contribution coming from the 30-39 and 45-59 year-old groups.The increase in the probability of premature death due to diabetes(AAPC=3.731%,P<0.05)decreased life expectancy of the population by 0.11 years,with a contribution of-2.90%.The change in t

关 键 词：慢性病 早死概率 期望寿命 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]