基于降雪识别的河南省降雪及降雪比率时空变化特征  

Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Snowfall and Snowfall Ratio in Henan Province Based on Snowfall Identification

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作  者:张凡 程凯琪 Zhang Fan;Cheng Kaiqi(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Weather Modification Center of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Meteorological Service Center,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区:[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省人工影响天气中心,郑州450003 [3]河南省气象服务中心,郑州450003

出  处:《气象与环境科学》2024年第4期13-22,共10页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基  金:中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J033);河南省科技攻关项目(242102321022);河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目(KQ202222)。

摘  要:使用河南省119个国家级地面气象观测站近52年(1968-2019年)的气象资料,利用日天气现象对日降水相态进行标记,运用加入指数方程拟合的双温度阈值法,构建了本地化分区域的降雪识别方法,通过降雪识别得到较为准确的降雪量后,研究了河南省近52年降雪和降雪比率时空变化特征。结果表明,加入指数方程拟合的双温度阈值法在河南省降雪识别中具有较高的精度,降雪识别指数方程估算的年降雪量和总降雪量在5个区域的相关系数均达到0.96以上。河南省近52年年平均降雪量为10~50 mm,降雪大值区位于豫西区域东南部和豫南区域东南部;全省年降雪量以-0.87 mm/10a的速率减少,各区域的年降雪量下降速率按照豫北、豫中、豫西、豫东、豫南的顺序依次增大;降雪期内各月份降雪量按照4月、11月、3月、12月、2月、1月的顺序递增,其中11月降雪量呈增长趋势,12月、2月和3月降雪量呈减小趋势。近52年降雪期内降雪比率为0.13~0.44,呈现出西高东低、北高南低的特征;降雪期内全省降雪比率以-0.0092/10a的速率下降,各区域降雪比率下降速率按照豫西、豫北、豫中、豫南、豫东的顺序依次增大,降雪比率较大的豫西、豫北区域下降速率较小,降雪比率较小的豫南、豫东区域下降速率较大;从站点分布来看,全省78%的站点降雪比率呈下降趋势,22%的站点呈上升趋势,呈上升趋势的站点位于豫西区域和豫北区域,呈下降趋势的站点位于豫东、豫南和豫中区域。Based on the meteorological data of 119 national meteorological stations in Henan Province in the recent 52 years from 1968 to 2019,daily precipitation phase states are labeled by daily weather phenomena,and a localized regional snowfall identification method is constructed by the double temperature threshold method fitted with exponential equation.After more accurate snowfall amount is obtained through snowfall identification,the spatio-temporal variation of snowfall and snowfall ratio(SR)in Henan Province in the 52 years is studied.The results show that the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation has a high accuracy in snowfall identification in Henan Province,and the correlation coefficients between the snowfall and the total snowfall estimated by the exponential equation in the five regions all exceed 0.96.During the recent 52 years,the average annual snowfall in Henan Province is 1050 mm,and the maximum snowfall areas are distributed in the southeastern part of western Henan and the southeastern part of southern Henan.The annual snowfall in Henan Province has decreased at the rate of-0.87 mm per decade,and the regional annual snowfall decline rate has increased in northern Henan,central Henan,western Henan,eastern Henan and southern Henan by order.The monthly snowfall in the snowfall period has increased in April,November,March,December,February and January by order,among which the snowfall in November shows an increasing trend but the snowfall in December,February and March has a decreasing trend.In the 52 years,the SR value is between 0.13 and 0.44,showing the characteristics of high in the west and the north but low in the east and the south.During the snowfall period,the SR of the whole province has decreased at a rate of-0.0092 per decade,while the regional SR decline rate has increased in the order of western Henan,northern Henan,central Henan,southern Henan and eastern Henan.In general,the decline rate of larger SR in the western and northern Henan regions is smaller,w

关 键 词:双温度阈值法 降雪识别 降雪比率 时空变化 

分 类 号:P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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