基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测黄花刺茄、假高粱及毒麦在我国的适生区  

Prediction of Suitable Areas of Solanum rostratum,Sorghum halepense and Lolium temulentum in China Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：闫文静 朱学慧 朱玉永 YAN Wenjing;ZHU Xuehui;ZHU Yuyong(Agricultural College,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,China;Institute of Horticultural Crops,Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Urumqi 830091,China;Agricultural Sciences&Technology Extension Station,The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学农学院,新疆石河子832003 [2]新疆农业科学院园艺作物研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830091 [3]新疆生产建设兵团农业科学技术推广总站,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《杂草学报》2024年第2期44-56,共13页Journal of Weed Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:20230228)。

摘　　要：为制定毒性杂草管理策略并为我国粮食安全和风险预警等提供科学依据,利用MaxEnt模型研究黄花刺茄、假高粱、毒麦目前在我国的时空分布规律及其主要生态影响因子,并预测其未来(2050、2070年)不同气候下在我国分布的变化趋势。结果表明,历史气候下,黄花刺茄受最冷季节降水量、气温季节性变化、年平均气温影响,适生区主要集中在我国东北和西北地区,适生区总面积为3.05×10^(6) km^(2),2050、2070年RCP 2.6气候下与历史气候下相比适生区总面积有缩小的趋势,2050、2070年RCP 8.5气候下的适生区面积大于RCP 2.6气候下的适生区面积。假高粱在历史气候下受最暖季节降水量、最湿月降水量、日均温、最热季节平均气温影响,适生区主要集中在东南地区,适生区总面积为1.63×10^(6) km^(2),在2050年适生区面积缩小,2070年适生区有扩大的趋势。毒麦在历史气候下受最暖季节降水量、气温季节性变化的影响,适生区面积主要集中在我国东北和东南地区,在未来气候下适生区面积有缩小的趋势。This study aimed to develop noxious weeds management strategies and provide scientific basis for Chinese food security and risk forewarning,etc..Therefore,we analyzed current spatial and temporal patterns and eco-driving factors of Solanum rostratum Dunal,Sorghum halepense(L.)Pers.and Lolium temulentum L.based on MaxEnt model,and predicted the patterns under different climatic conditions in future(in 2025,2070)in China.The results showed that S.rostratum Dunal was affected by precipitation in the coldest season,seasonal variations in temperature and average annual temperature under the historical climate conditions.Its suitable area was mainly distributed in Northeast and Northwest China,and the total area was 3.05×10^(6) km^(2).In 2050 and 2070,there would be a smaller trend in suitable area under RCP 2.6 than that under historical climate,the area of suitable habitat under RCP 8.5 climate in 2050 and 2070 would be larger than that under RCP 2.6 climate.Under the historical climate,the suitable area of S.halepense(L.)Pers.with 1.63×10^(6) km^(2) was mainly concentrated in the southeast region duing to the precipitation of the warmest season,the precipitation of the wettest month,the average daily temperature and the average temperature of the hottest season,and the area of suitable habitat would decrease in 2050,and expand in 2070.Under the historical climate,suitable area of L.temulentum L.was mainly distributed in Northeast and Southeast China because of the precipitation and seasonal variations of temperature in the warmest season,and would narrowed under the future climate.

关 键 词：毒性杂草 MaxEnt模型 黄花刺茄 假高粱 毒麦 生态因子 时空分布 适生区 

分 类 号：Q948.13[生物学—植物学] S451[农业科学—植物保护] Q94-332