中国商船通行北极东北航道现状及其经济效益分析  

Analysis of the Current Situation and Economic Benefits of Chinese Merchant Ship Passage Through the Arctic Northeast Passage

作　　者：胡梦 崔濛 胡麦秀[1] HU Meng;CUI Meng;HU Maixiu(Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Marine Design and Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200011,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学,上海201306 [2]中国船舶及海洋工程设计研究院,上海200011

出　　处：《海洋开发与管理》2024年第4期18-30,共13页Ocean Development and Management

基　　金：教育部后期资助(重大)项目:“北极航道开发利用有关问题研究”(20JHQ016).

摘　　要：随着“北极放大”效应的扩大,北极东北航道的通航窗口期逐渐拉长,其夏季常态化运营实现了现实可能性。文章从中国商船航行北极东北航道的实际航行数据出发,分析船只数和航次数、冰级和船型分布、货运量和货物种类、运输航线分布,以及通航窗口期及破冰引航情况,并基于航行数据计算商船航行北极东北航道的航运利润,进行航运经济效益分析。结果表明,中国商船通行北极东北航道的航次数和货运量都处于相对较低的水平,但从总趋势上来看,中国商船通行北极东北航道的航次数在逐年增加,货运量也在不断提高;随着北极海冰的加速消融,中国商船通行北极东北航道的通航窗口期在不断延长,从而使北极东北航道实现常态化商业运营的可能性大大提高;当前中国商船通航北极东北航道的航次数以及运输的货运量较少且通航的窗口期也较短。With the expansion of the“Arctic Amplification”effect,the navigable period of the Arctic Northeast Passage(NEP)has gradually been lengthened,and its regular operation in summer has become a realistic possibility.Starting from the actual voyage data of Chinese mer-chant ships navigating the NEP,this paper analyzes the number of ships and voyages,ice class and ship type distribution,cargo volume and cargo type,transportation route distribution,nav-igable period and ice breaking pilotage,and then calculates the profit of merchant ships.The re-sults show that the voyage number and cargo volume of Chinese merchant ships shipping via the NEP are at a relatively low level,but in terms of the general trend,the number of voyages of Chinese merchant ships shipping via the NEP is increasing year by year,and the cargo volume of Chinese merchant ships is also increasing.With the accelerated melting of the Arctic sea ice,the navigable period for ships to pass has been prolonged,which has greatly increased the possi-bility of regular commercial operation in the NEP;At present,Chinese merchant ships have a chance to operate in the NEP;With the accelerated melting of sea ice,the period for Chinese merchant ships to pass has been extended,thus making it possible for the NEP to realize regular commercial operation.

关 键 词：北极东北航道 常态化运营 航运经济性效益 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] U9[交通运输工程]