内外资互促、双循环联动的就业效应及影响因素研究  

The Employment Effect of Domestic-Foreign Capital Interaction in Dual Circulation and Its Decomposition

作　　者：朱金生[1] 屈豆豆 王振国 Zhu Jinsheng;Qu Doudou;Wang Zhenguo

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第4期3-20,共18页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环推动更加充分更高质量就业的实现机制及政策路径研究”(编号:22BJY048)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章利用OECD公布的2000~2019年全球区域间企业投入产出数据库和配套的就业数据库,基于内外资互促、双循环联动的就业效应分解框架,从国家、行业和企业3个层次分析双循环的发展态势对中国就业的影响。研究发现,当前内循环水平及其就业效应远高于外循环;不同类型的外循环之间,复杂外循环水平及其带动的就业均超过简单外循环。分行业来看,服务业参与双循环带动的就业最多,且呈上升趋势,是促就业的牵引器;农业参与双循环带动的就业数量呈一定的下降趋势,但其总量仅次于服务业,是稳就业的缓冲器;制造业参与双循环的就业带动效应位列第三,且随时间变化不大,是保就业的稳定器。分企业类型来看,内资企业间的循环创造的增加值和带动的就业最多,且呈上升趋势;内外资企业间的循环和外资企业间的循环带动的就业规模次之,且随时间有所下降。总体上,双循环表现出“内外资互促、内循环拉动、外循环赋能”的就业效应。结构分解分析结果表明,中间供给和最终需求的就业带动效应为正,抵消了劳动生产率和增加值率对就业的负向影响,保证了就业平稳增长;各因素的贡献存在行业与时期异质性。文章认为,坚持对内深化改革、对外扩大开放,通过企业间分工合作推动供需良性互动,是更好地利用两个市场、两种资源实现高质量充分就业的机制保障。This article utilizes the OECD's Global Regional Input-Output data and its complementary employment data from 2000 to 2019 to examine the impact of China's dual circulation strategy on employment at national,industrial,and enterprise levels.Using a framework that decomposes employment effects of internal and external circulation dynamics,the study finds that during the study period,China's internal circulation and its employment effects take the lead at all levels.Across various types of external circulation,participation in complex external circulation has a greater contribution on employment as compared with simple external circulation,albeit its heterogeneity across industries and enterprises.Specifically,the service sector's dual circulation has an increasing employment impact,as a major employment engine.While the employment impact of the agricultural sector's dual circulation declines over time,it remains second and serves as an important employment stabilizer.The manufacturing sector,ranking the third in employment impact from dual circulation,exhibits no significant change and acts as a stable employment provider.At enterprise level,domestic-domestic enterprises'internal circulation contributes most and increasingly to the added values and employment.Meanwhile,domestic-foreign and foreign-foreign enterprises'circulations have slightly declining employment impacts,yet their contributions remain substantial.The results of Structural Decomposition Analysis(SDA)indicate that the positive employment effects of intermediate supply and final demand offset the negative ones from labor productivity and added value rate,ensuring a stable employment growth.The employment impact of various factors exhibits heterogeneity across industries and over time.The article concludes with policy propositions on promoting high-quality and full employment.

关 键 词：双循环 内外资企业 就业 投入产出分析 结构分解分析 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2