中国女性未育比例的变化——基于队列的分析  

Trends in Childlessness Proportion among Chinese Women:A Cohort Analysis

作　　者：王甜 谭惟伊 韩璐 姜全保[2] Wang Tian;Tan Weiyi;Han Lu;Jiang Quanbao

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院 [2]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第4期115-128,共14页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国家庭结构功能变迁及发展能力提升研究”(23&ZD185)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国女性终身不育现象增加,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,基于队列的视角计算了各出生队列的年龄别未育比例及其城乡和教育差异,分析了队列生育的推迟与补偿效应,并对各队列未育比例的差异进行了分解。研究结果表明,较晚出生队列的女性在29岁时的未育比例明显上升,且高学历、城市女性的上升趋势更为明显,反映了较晚出生队列的女性推迟初育的现实;虽然在育龄期后期存在生育的补偿效应,但在较晚出生队列中相应的补偿程度降低。初婚年龄越晚,女性终身无子女的可能性越大;在较晚出生的队列中,未婚比例上升对年龄别未育比例升高的贡献不断增大。通过逐步替换法对队列未育比例变动进行分年龄的分解,结果显示,在生育年龄早期,晚出生队列年龄别未育条件概率的升高导致了队列未育比例的增加;在生育年龄中后期,女性年龄别未育条件概率有所降低,存在一定程度的补偿生育,但补偿能力有限。预期未来年轻女性的终身不育水平将进一步上升。The increasing phenomenon of childlessness in China has caused extensive attention.Based on the 2017 China Fertility Survey data and from a cohort perspective,we first calculated age-specific childlessness proportions and the urban-rural,educational differences.Then,we analyzed the postponement and recuperation of first births,and finally we decomposed the differences in the childlessness proportion between cohorts.The results show that the childlessness proportion increases among women aged 29 in later birth cohorts,and is higher among urban women and among higher educated women,reflecting the reality of delayed first childbearing among women in later birth cohorts.Although there is a recuperation of childbearing at later reproductive ages,the corresponding recuperation is weaker in the later birth cohort.The older the age at first marriage,the greater the likelihood of childlessness for life,and the contribution of the rising proportion never-married to the rising of childlessness proportion increases in later birth cohorts.Using a stepwise replacement method,the age-specific decomposition of differences in the childlessness proportion between cohorts shows that at early reproductive ages,the higher age-specific conditional probability of not giving birth among later birth cohorts increased the childlessness proportion,and at advanced ages the age-specific conditional probability of not giving birth decreased,resulting in a recuperation of childbearing,but the degree of the recuperation is limited.The childlessness proportion among young women is expected to increase in the future.

关 键 词：未育比例 生育推迟 队列分解 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] D442.6[政治法律—政治学]