极端天气下轨道交通水害致灾因子时空分布特征  

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of disaster-causing factors for rail transit flooding under extreme conditions

作　　者：江雨潮 高燕 史天根 孙可天 施旭 JIANG Yuchao;GAO Yan;SHI Tiangen;SUN Ketian;SHI Xu(School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519000,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地球科学与工程学院,广东珠海519000 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519000

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第7期10-19,共10页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005203)。

摘　　要：近年来,在与气候变化相关的多种极端天气因素的相互作用下,洪涝事件对城市及轨道交通系统造成了严重影响。以粤港澳大湾区典型沿海城市洪涝事件为例,研究了轨道交通水害的主要致灾因子(极端降雨和台风风暴潮)及相关特征参数,揭示了其时空分布特征。研究表明:①近年来,广州市降雨量、降雨强度均明显增加,但降雨历时减少,降雨整体呈现增多且趋于集中的极端化趋势。广州市降雨时间分布在年内存在两个极值区间,第一极值区间与广州市“龙舟水”相关,第二极值区间主要受台风影响。广州市降雨空间分布不均,主要受季风及地理位置影响。②近10 a影响广东省的29场台风风暴潮灾害集中发生在7~10月,该时间与降雨第二极值区间重合。在对近年广东省典型轨道交通水害事件进行总结后发现,水害高发期与两个极值区间重合。虽然广东省台风强度存在缓慢降低趋势,但由于广东省沿海城市遭受台风风暴潮灾害的频次不断上升,且粤中地区密集分布有广东省全部的地下轨道交通系统,未来广东省轨道交通系统水害风险将随着极端天气时空分布特征的变化进一步加大。研究成果可为未来城市轨道交通水害致灾特征研究提供依据,为城市防灾减灾提供参考。In recent years,under the interaction of multiple extreme weather factors related to climate change,flooding events have caused serious impacts on cities and rail transit systems.Taking a typical coastal city Guangzhou City in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a case study,we examined the main contributing factors(extreme rainfall and typhoon storm surge)and related parameters of rail transit flooding,revealing their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics.The study results showed that:①The amount and intensity of rainfall in Guangzhou City have increased significantly,while the duration of rainfall has decreased,leading to an overall increase in rainfall and a trend toward more extreme precipitation events.There are two extreme intervals of rainfall distribution in Guangzhou City during the year.The first interval is associated with the"Dragon-Boat-Precipitation,"while the second interval is mainly influenced by typhoons.The spatial distribution of rainfall in Guangzhou City is uneven,primarily due to the monsoon and geographic location.②The 29 typhoons and storm surges that affected Guangdong Province in the past 10 years occurred between July and October,coinciding with the second extreme rainfall interval.Analyzing typical rail transit water damage events in Guangdong Province in recent years revealed that the high incidence of water damage aligns with these two extreme intervals.Although the intensity of typhoons in Guangdong Province is slowly decreasing,the frequency of typhoons and storm surges in its coastal cities is increasing.Given that all rail transit systems are densely distributed in the central region of Guangdong Province,the risk of water damage to these systems is expected to increase in the future due to changes in the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme weather.The results of the study can serve as a foundation for future research on the characteristics of urban rail transit water damage and as a reference for urban disaster prevention a

关 键 词：轨道交通 洪涝灾害 致灾因子 极端降雨 台风风暴潮 特征参数模型 广州市 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]