国际能源转型背景下俄罗斯煤炭工业发展状况及对策研究  

Research on the development status and countermeasures of Russian coal industry under the background of international energy transformation

作　　者：寇文涛 Kou Wentao(Guangzhou Labor and Employment Service and Management Center)

机构地区：[1]广州市劳动就业服务管理中心

出　　处：《欧亚人文研究（中俄文）》2024年第3期37-50,85,89,90,共17页Eurasian Humanities Studies

摘　　要：本文根据当前国际能源转型的基本趋势,从俄罗斯国内政治和经济社会环境、国际政治经济环境、以及俄罗斯煤炭行业自身的制度特点三方面进行交互式分析,在生产方面,评估其适应快速变化的社会政治和技术经济环境的能力;在贸易方面,评估其出口方向大幅转向东方后的措施和效果。分析结果显示,在当前国际制裁和双碳远景目标下,俄罗斯煤炭工业发展可能出现先升后降的趋势;在俄罗斯政府对煤炭工业发展整体持乐观态度的前提下,各种配套的扶持政策将有利于俄罗斯煤炭工业的整体良性发展,尤其是在俄煤出口大幅转向东方后,加强中俄之间煤炭贸易合作将符合两国的核心利益;此外,对中俄煤炭合作视角下构建中国国内国际双循环新发展格局进行了展望。In view of the basic trend of the current international energy transition,this paper analyzes Russia’s domestic political,economic and social environment,the international political and economic environment,and the institutional characteristics of the Russian coal industry itself.On this basis,the paper evaluates both its ability to adapt to the rapidly changing social,political,technological,and economic environment from the production perspective,and the measures and effects of its export shift to the east from the trade perspective.The results show that under the current international sanctions and“dual carbon”vision,the development of Russian coal industry may exhibit a tendency of rise and then fall.Under the premise of the optimistic attitude of Russian government toward the coal industry,various supporting policies will contribute to the overall development of Russian coal industry,especially after its export shift to the east.Strengthening coal trade cooperation between China and Russia will serve the core interests of both countries.In addition,the paper forecasts the construction of a new development pattern based on China’s domestic and international circulation from the perspective of Sino-Russian coal cooperation.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 中国 煤炭工业 能源转型 国际制裁 发展对策 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]