中国会展业区域韧性的测量与空间分布特征——基于反事实预期的测算对比  

Measurement and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Regional Resilience in China's Exhibition Industry—Based on the contrast with counterfactual expectations

作　　者：王君怡 罗秋菊[1] Wang Junyi;Luo Qiuju(School of Tourism Management,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学旅游学院,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2024年第6期28-39,共12页Tourism Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“互动、流动与再物质化:文化遗产实践中的参与式意义建构研究”(42301261);国家自然科学基金青年项目“虚拟蜂鸣与全球蜂鸣的交互:虚实空间耦合下的会展知识扩散机制研究——基于临时产业集群视角”(42101230)共同资助;教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“创意社群与公共文化空间互嵌共生的生成逻辑与高质量发展路径研究”(23YJCZH213);中国博士后科学基金面上项目“社交媒体时代文化遗产的形象重构研究——基于创意社群的互动生成”(2023M733990)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国会展业已进入全面复苏与和升级发展阶段。深入探讨我国会展业区域韧性及其空间分布问题可回应我国会展业受到系统外部冲击后的动态发展能力和区域结构关系,为制定针对性的管理措施提供理论依据。基于此,文章借鉴区域经济韧性的概念与测度方法,构建会展业区域韧性测量算式,并据此对省(自治区、直辖市)、地级市和展馆三尺度的会展业韧性进行测度。结果发现,我国会展业可根据冲击前的发展力和应对冲击的抵抗力,划分为“高发展力-高抵抗力”“高发展力-低抵抗力”“低发展力-高抵抗力”和“低发展力-低抵抗力”4种类型。区域会展系统在不同时空尺度上的发展关系组合影响了区域会展业应对外部冲击时的抵抗力水平,具有成熟的会展系统结构且处于稳定发展阶段的区域具有较好的抵抗力水平。较好的会展业发展基础和持续稳定的向好发展趋势是区域会展业高恢复力的有效预测因子。部分展馆和城市已实现高于冲击前预期值的会展业恢复程度,可通过针对性举措和创新发展实现会展业韧性类型的变革和突破。研究有助于明晰我国会展业的空间发展趋势,为加强会展业发展韧性提供理论借鉴。Recently,China's conference and exhibition industry has been experiencing a wave of comprehensive recovery and expansion.An in-depth study on regional resilience and spatial distribution may shed light on the Chinese exhibition industry's post-shock adaptational strength and regional structural relations,which may then provide a theoretical basis for effective management.This study draws upon the concept of regional resilience in the exhibition industry to construct a framework for measuring regional resilience at the scale of provinces,cities,and venues.Results show that the Chinese exhibition industry's pre-pandemic capacity and post-pandemic recovery can be split into four categories:high development capacity-high resilience,high development capacity-low resilience,low development capacity-high resilience and low development capacity-low resilience.Different spatial-temporal mixes played a significant role in the ability of regional exhibition structures to withstand shocks.Mature exhibition industries within a stable development environment displayed greater resilience,with solid foundations and stable development trends identified as effective predictors of recovery.Currently,some venues and cities have surpassed preshock expectations in industry recovery.Such resilience can be achieved through targeted measures and innovation.This study helps to clarify the spatial development trend of China's regional exhibition industry and provides a theoretical reference for strengthening its resilience to external shocks.

关 键 词：会展业 区域韧性 空间分布 反事实预期 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]