内蒙古旅游环境系统韧性动力学建模与仿真  

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of the Resilience of Tourism Environment System in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：陈文节 李艺璇 顾丹丹 Chen Wenjie;Li Yixuan;Gu Dandan(a.Business School,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;Institute for Culture and Tourism Development,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Tourism,Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,China;School of Tourism Management,Hengxing University,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学商学院,北京100048 [2]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048 [3]北京工商大学文化和旅游发展研究院,北京100048 [4]内蒙古财经大学旅游学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010070 [5]青岛恒星科技学院旅游管理学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2024年第6期47-58,共12页Tourism Forum

摘　　要：旅游环境系统为旅游业提供支撑,其韧性水平对区域旅游可持续发展具有重要影响。在分析旅游环境系统韧性内涵的基础上,以“五位一体”总体布局为背景,将内蒙古旅游环境系统分解为经济子系统、政治子系统、文化子系统、社会子系统和生态子系统并构建韧性评价指标体系。利用熵值法设定各指标权重,借助Vensim软件构建系统动力学模型,模拟内蒙古旅游环境系统韧性的运行过程,仿真4种不同的政策情境,进行战略决策预测,揭示内在发展机制和趋势特征。结果表明:内蒙古旅游环境系统韧性受多因素的影响,总体呈波动上升趋势;经济建设较为滞后,社会发展相对稳固;“两山”双向转换通道尚存不足;在4种政策情境下,内蒙古旅游环境系统韧性均有所增加,相对于经济发展,加强生态建设更有利于促进旅游环境系统韧性的提升。从长远来看,注重协调发展的“方案四”更能有效提高内蒙古旅游环境系统韧性。研究结果在一定程度上为内蒙古旅游业发展提供了模式参考与实践路径。The tourism environment system provides a critical support role for the tourism industry,and system resilience plays an important part in the sustainable development of regional tourism.Based on the analysis of the resilience connotation in the tourism environment system,with a Five-sphere Integrated Plan as background,this paper decomposed the Inner Mongolia tourism environment system into subsystem categories.These include the economic subsystem,political subsystem,cultural subsystem,social subsystem,and ecological subsystem.And the resilience evaluation index system was constructed.The weights of each index were determined using the entropy method,with a system dynamics model established using Vensim software to simulate the operational process of resilience in the Inner Mongolia tourism environment system.Four different policy scenarios were simulated to generate strategic decisionmaking predictions and reveal underlying development mechanisms and trend characteristics.The results show that the resilience of the Inner Mongolia tourism environment system is influenced by multiple factors and generally exhibits a fluctuating upward trend.Economic construction lags,while social development is relatively stable.The"Two Mountains"bidirectional conversion channel is still insufficient;Under the four policy scenarios,the resilience of the Inner Mongolia tourism environment system has increased to some extent.Compared to economic development,strengthening ecological construction is more conducive to enhancing the resilience of the tourism environment system.In the long run,"Scheme Four"which focuses on coordinated development is more effective in improving the resilience of the Inner Mongolia tourism environment system.The research findings provide a model reference and practical pathway for the development of the tourism industry in Inner Mongolia to an extent.

关 键 词：旅游环境系统 韧性 熵值法 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]