面向大型活动的轨道交通客流预测与安全保障策略  

Passenger flow prediction and safety guarantee strategies of urban rail transit facing large-scale events

作　　者：张铭 朱伟 王越彤 曹耘文 ZHANG Ming;ZHU Wei;WANG Yuetong;CAO Yunwen(Institute of Computing Technologies,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;Shanghai Metro Operation and Management Center,Shanghai Shentong Metro Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200070,China;Beijing Jingwei Information Technologies Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司电子计算技术研究所,北京100081 [2]上海申通地铁集团有限公司上海轨道交通运营管理中心,上海200070 [3]北京经纬信息技术有限公司,北京100081

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2024年第8期218-225,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金-丰台轨道交通前沿研究联合基金项目(L221010);中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2023YJ149)。

摘　　要：为应对大型活动期间城市轨道交通客流的临时性、非均衡性、不可预见性导致的精准需求预测困难以及组织要素间复杂协同等问题,首先,提出基于线网递阶分区的乘客路径搜索及选择行为相结合的仿真模型;其次,构建调度指挥体系的五级预警、三级保驾的分级响应机制,运用专项客运预案、运力灵活调整、调度指挥信息平台决策、多种交通方式联动及场站交通管制等,建立多环节组合策略的安全保障方法;最后,选取连续性大型活动类型的典型案例,将上述方法进行场景适配运用。研究结果表明:该方法能够支持大型活动期间客运需求波动研判、促进运营组织协同及交通疏导,进而有效提升精细化运营与应急能力。研究结果可为轨道交通企业应对大型活动安全保障提供参考和借鉴。In order to solve the problem that the difficulties in accurate demand prediction caused by the temporary,unbalanced,and unpredictable passenger flow of urban rail transit during large-scale events,as well as the complex coordination problems among organizational elements,firstly,a simulation model combining the passenger path search and selection behavior based on hierarchical partitioning of line network was proposed.Secondly,the system of dispatching and command with a five-level warning and three-level safeguard was established.By using the special passenger transport plan,flexible adjustment of transport capacity,decision-making of dispatching and command information platform,linkage of various modes of transportation and traffic control of stations,the safety guarantee method of multi-link combination strategy was established.Finally,a typical case of continuous large-scale event type was selected,and the method was applied to scene adaptation.The results show that this method can support the analysis of passenger demand fluctuation during large-scale event,promote the coordination of operation organization and traffic guidance,and effectively improve the refined operation and emergency response capabilities.The research results can provide reference for rail transit enterprises to deal with the safety guarantee of large-scale events.

关 键 词：轨道交通 大型活动 客流预测 安全保障策略 应急响应 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]