基于多模式的2020年黄山地区超长梅雨期暴雨检验  

Test of rainstorm in Huangshan area during the ultra-long Meiyu period in 2020 based on multi-model

作　　者：黄骏凯 王婧 吕涛 沈绪杨 Huang Junkai;Wang Jing;Lv Tao;Shen Xuyang(Huangshan Meteorological Of fice,Anhui Province,Huangshan 245899;Huangshan Meteorological Bureau,Huangshan 245021)

机构地区：[1]安徽省黄山气象管理处,黄山245899 [2]黄山市气象局,黄山245021

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2024年第4期45-49,共5页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41805060);安徽省气象局预报员专项项目(kY202108)资助。

摘　　要：为了做好黄山地区梅雨期暴雨的气象服务工作,文章利用本地预报业务常用的两个全球模式EC-thin、CMA-GFS,以及一个区域模式CMA-SH9,对2020年黄山地区超长梅雨期暴雨预报总体性能进行检验,结果表明:EC-thin对天气系统的预报能力明显强于CMA-GFS,但随着预报时效的增加,预报误差会增大;CMA-SH9对降水强度的预报效果最佳,EC-thin次之,CMA-GFS最差,三种模式的24 h时效预报能力接近,可同时参考;随时效延长,CMA-SH9的参考性增强;三种模式对降水落区的预报均偏小,24 h时效可同时参考EC-thin和CMA-SH9,两者随时效延长以经向调整为主,多数偏南或偏北,三种模式对临近时效的落区偏离预报都有一定的订正能力。In order to do a good job in meteorological service of Huangshan region rainstorms in Meiyu period.This paper tests the overall performance of rainstorm forecast in the ultra-long Meiyu period in Huangshan region in 2020 was tested by using two global models EC-thin,CMA-GFS and one regional model(CMA-SH9)commonly used in local forecasting business.The results show that EC thin has a significantly stronger predictive ability for weather systems than CMA-GFS,but with the increase of forecast time,the forecast error will increase.CMA-SH9 has the best prediction effect on precipitation intensity,followed by EC thin,and CMA-GFS has the worst.The 24-hour forecasting ability of the three models is similar and can be referenced simultaneously.Extended effectiveness at any time,enhancing the reference value of CMA-SH9.The three models have relatively small predictions for precipitation precipitation areas,and the 24-hour time series can refer to both EC thin and CMA-SH9.The two models mainly adjust longitudinally with the extension of time series,with most of them leaning south or north.The three models have a certain correction ability for deviation from the prediction of precipitation areas near the time effect.

关 键 词：梅雨期暴雨 模式检验 预报偏差 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]