碳排放交易和绿证交易制度政策模拟研究--基于动态CGE模型  

Policy Simulation Research on Carbon Emissions Trading and Green Certificate Trading System--based on dynamic CGE model

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 贺薪颖 ZENG Ming;HE Xin-ying(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Tianjin Chengxi Electric Power Supply Company,Tianjin 300113,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网天津市电力公司城西供电分公司,天津300113

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期38-50,共13页Journal of North China Electric Power University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB2400700);国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA081)。

摘　　要：在未来碳排放交易和绿证交易逐步推行的背景下,模拟研究碳排放交易和绿证交易政策对经济社会的影响具有重要意义。本文引入“能源-政策”模块将政策的成本收益嵌入一般均衡模型,构建了我国能源市场可计算动态一般均衡模型,对碳排放交易和绿证交易制度的作用影响进行模拟仿真。研究结果表明,不同的碳减排目标对宏观经济和产业产出的影响不同。在宏观经济方面,严格的碳减排政策可能对经济产生一定负面影响,造成碳价提升;在产业产出方面,碳减排政策能够在一定程度上优化中间部门产业结构,对石油、化工、钢铁等碳排放量较高的产业发展起到抑制作用。基于能源要素的替代效应,新能源产业的产出得到提升,进而实现产业和能源结构的优化。In order to simulate and study the impact of carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading policies on the economy,this paper introduces the"energy-policy"module to embed the cost and benefit of policies into the model,and constructs a computable dynamic general equilibrium model of China's energy market to simulate the effect of carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading system.The results show that different carbon emission reduction targets have different impacts on macroeconomic and industrial output.In the macro economy,the strict carbon emission reduction policy may have a certain negative impact on the economy,resulting in the rise of carbon price.In terms of industrial output,the carbon emission reduction policy can optimize the industrial structure of the intermediate sector to a certain extent,and inhibit the development of industries with high carbon emissions such as petroleum,chemical industry and steel.Based on the substitution effect of energy elements,the output of the new energy industry is improved,and then the energy structure is optimized.The research in this paper provides new theoretical evidence for energy transformation and upgrading under the policy background of implementing carbon emissions trading and green certificate trading system.

关 键 词：CGE模型 碳排放交易 绿证交易 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F832.5