2013—2022年上海市静安区某街道户籍人口生育特征及其变化趋势分析  

Analysis of fertility characteristics and trends of registered population in a neighborhood in Jing’an District,Shanghai from 2013 to 2022

作　　者：严可 万秋萍 杨晓明[2] 胡宏 YAN Ke;WAN Qiuping;YANG Xiaoming;HU Hong(Health Management Department,Linfen Road Community Health Service Center,Jing’an District,Shanghai 200040,China;Department of Vital Statistics and Cancer and Injury Prevention,Jing’an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200040,China;Hospital Office,Linfen Road Community Health Service Center,Jing’an District,Shanghai 200040,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市静安区临汾路街道社区卫生服务中心健康管理部,上海200040 [2]上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心生命统计与肿瘤伤害防治科,上海200040 [3]上海市静安区临汾路街道社区卫生服务中心医院办公室,上海200040

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2024年第7期679-685,共7页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：【目的】分析2013—2022年上海市静安区某街道户籍人口的生育特征,为人口发展规划和公共卫生资源配置提供参考依据。【方法】通过上海市出生医学信息系统和公安部门收集某街道户籍新生儿及产妇信息,采用Excel2010软件进行数据统计分析,采用Joinpoint连接点回归模型描述变化趋势。【结果】2013—2022年某街道的粗出生率、一般生育率和总和生育率呈下降趋势,年度平均变化百分比(AAPC)值分别为-7.62%、-6.99%和-4.54%。女性初育年龄和生育年龄逐年增高,AAPC值分别为1.24%和1.28%。10年间新生儿出生总数呈下降趋势,AAPC值为-6.15%。二孩政策出台后二孩占比呈增高趋势,AAPC值为7.37%。【结论】某街道人口生育水平呈下降趋势,二孩政策对提高生育率效果不明显,且女性生育年龄持续增高,需要采取多样化措施进行生育鼓励和优生优育宣教。[Objective]To analyze the fertility characteristics of the registered population in a neighborhood in Jing’an District,Shanghai from 2013 to 2022,and to provide a reference for population development planning and allocation of public health resources.[Methods]Data on newborns and puerperae registered in the neighborhood were collected through the Shanghai Birth Medical Information System and Public Security Department information system.Statistical analysis was conducted using Excel 2010,and the Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the changes.[Results]From 2013 to 2022,the crude birth rate,general fertility rate,and total fertility rate showed a declining trend,with average annual percent change(AAPC)values of -7.62%,-6.99%,and -4.54%,respectively.The average age of first childbirth and the age of childbearing among women gradually increased,with AAPC values of 1.24% and 1.28%,respectively.In the past 10 years,the total number of newborns showed a downward trend,with an AAPC value of−6.15%.After the implementation of the two-child policy,the proportion of second children showed an increasing trend,with an AAPC value of 7.37%.[Conclusion]The fertility level of the population in the neighborhood is declining.The two-child policy has not significantly improved fertility rates,and the age of childbearing in women continues to rise.Diverse measures are needed to encourage childbirths and promote healthy births.

关 键 词：出生率 生育率 生育年龄 城市社区 

分 类 号：R17[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]