公共研发投入经济影响评估的国际实践与启示  

International Practice and Inspiration of Economic Impact Assessment of Public R&D Investment

作　　者：杜丹 杨耀 高白云 施筱勇[1] DU Dan;YANG Yao;GAO Baiyun;SHI Xiaoyong(National Center for Science&Technology Evaluation,Beijing 100045)

机构地区：[1]科技部科技评估中心,北京100081

出　　处：《全球科技经济瞭望》2024年第6期43-56,共14页Global Science，Technology and Economy Outlook

基　　金：广东省省级科技计划项目“《广东省科技创新‘十四五’规划》实施中期评估研究”(2024A1010070008)。

摘　　要：对公共研发投入的科技活动开展经济影响评估是发达国家政府普遍做法。选取了欧盟框架计划(Framework Programmes,FP)、人类基因组计划(Human Genome Project,HGP)、加拿大自然科学与工程理事会(Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada,NSERC)合作研发计划和美国国家标准与技术研究院(National Institute of Standards and Technology,NIST)研发项目的经济影响评估实践。具体分析了4个评估实践的经济影响评估逻辑框架、反事实分析、经济计量方法和选用指标。研究发现,完整的评估逻辑框架,科学的评估设计,成熟的经济计量模型和完备的指标数据等是经济影响评估的重要因素。通过国际评估实践分析与总结为中国国家科技计划影响评估提供经验借鉴。It is a common practice for governments in developed countries to conduct economic impact assessments on scientific and technological activities invested in public R&D.This paper selects the economic impact assessment practices of the E.U.Framework Program,the Human Genome Project,the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada’s Collaborative Research and Development Program,and the U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology’s R&D Programs.The economic impact assessment logical framework,counterfactual analysis,econometric methods,and selected indicators of the four assessment practices are specifically analyzed.It was found that a complete evaluation logic framework,scientific evaluation design,mature econometric models,and comprehensive indicator data are important factors in economic impact assessment.Through the analysis and summary of international assessment practices,this paper provides experience and reference for the impact assessment of China’s science and technology plans.

关 键 词：经济影响评估 评估逻辑框架 经济计量方法 评估指标 国际经验 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济] G323[文化科学]