2023全球重大油气发现及2024勘探展望  

Global major oil and gas discoveries in 2023 and exploration outlook in 2024

作　　者：王大鹏 孔祥宇[1] 田琨[1] 郭金瑞[1] 殷进垠[1] WANG Dapeng;KONG Xiangyu;TIAN Kun;GUO Jinrui;YIN Jinyin(Petroleum Exploration&Production Research Institute,Sinopec,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京102206

出　　处：《世界石油工业》2024年第4期48-57,共10页World Petroleum Industry

基　　金：国家科技重大专项“南大西洋两岸油气成藏条件与资源评价”(2016ZX05033-001);中国石油化工集团有限公司科技部项目“西非北部盆地油气资源潜力评价与有利区优选”(P17062-3)和“两伊地区油气富集规律及目标优选”(P22085)。

摘　　要：基于国际知名咨询机构IHS Markit、Wood Mackenzie、Rystad Energy和Westwood等公司最新发布数据,剖析2023年全球勘探形势和重大油气发现,展望2024年应重点关注的勘探领域和方向。2023年,在全球能源领域追求安全与可持续发展的背景下,国家石油公司更倾向于投资陆上富油气盆地,国际大型石油公司则继续引领全球深水油气勘探。2023年全球常规油气勘探发现储量呈现下降趋势,虽然与2022年相比全球勘探投资有所增长,但新增储量和商业成功率下降明显。2023年,以圭亚那、苏里南、印度尼西亚和土耳其等为代表的新兴领域获得多个重大发现;以伊朗、埃及和挪威等为代表的成熟领域取得规模新增储量;以马来西亚、纳米比亚和津巴布韦为代表的前沿领域成为重要的增储发现地,展现了良好的商业前景。虽然面对全球能源安全和能源加速转型的双重压力,国际石油公司对勘探投资持相对谨慎态度,但对前沿领域和深水勘探保持乐观。预计2024年,全球勘探投资继续保持稳定增长,投资主要来源于国家石油公司和国际大型石油公司;全球高影响力探井数预计与2023年大致持平,这些探井将主要集中在南美圭亚那和苏里南、非洲纳米比亚和南非、东南亚印度尼西亚和马来西亚以及东地中海和挪威海域。Based on the analysis data of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie,Rystad Energy,Westwood and other authoritative international consulting agencies,this paper analyzes the global major oil and gas discovery and exploration progress in 2023,and puts forward the exploration fields and directions in 2024.In the context of seeking energy security and sustainability,national oil companies focus on rich petroliferous basins onshore,and major international oil companies lead the global deep-water exploration.Global conventional oil and gas exploration reserves show a downward trend in 2023,and compared with 2022,although global exploration and development investment has increased,new discovered reserves and commercial success rates have declined significantly.Significant discoveries were represented by Guyana,Suriname,Indonesia and Turkey in emerging areas;mature areas such as Iran,Egypt and Norway,gained new significant reserve growth.The frontier areas represented by Malaysia,Namibia and Zimbabwe have become important for the new discovered reserves,showing good business prospect.Due to the dual pressures of the global energy security and accelerated energy transition,although oil companies will continue to take relatively cautious attitude about exploration investments,they remain optimistic about frontier and deep-water areas exploration.Global exploration investments are expected to continue to grow steadily in 2024,mainly from national oil companies and large international oil companies,and the number of global high-impact exploration wells is expected to be roughly the same as in 2023.It is mainly distributed in offshore Guyana and Suriname in South America,Namibia and South Africa in Africa,Indonesia and Malaysia in Southeast Asia,and the Eastern Mediterranean and Norwegian.

关 键 词：油气发现 勘探领域 勘探前景 勘探投资 高影响力探井 

分 类 号：TE122.1[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]