生成式人工智能、就业变动与收入不平等  

Generative Artificial Intelligence,the Change of Employment and Income Inequality

作　　者：张展培 梁洁莹 刘小勇[1] Zhang Zhanpei;Liang Jieying;Liu Xiaoyong

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与金融学院,广东省广州市510006 [2]广东财经大学会计学院/智能财会管理学院,广东省广州市510320

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第8期45-69,共25页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新时代区域协调发展的财政体制研究”(19BJL045);广东省普通高校创新团队项目“粤港澳大湾区资本市场财务与会计创新研究团队”(2020WCXTD009);浙江省人力资源保障厅科学研究课题“人工智能对大学生高质量就业影响效果及‘就业难‘’招工难’突破路径”(2024015)研究资助。

摘　　要：基于生成式人工智能迅速发展、就业和收入分配问题愈发凸显的现实背景,文章建立了一个包含异质性主体的职业选择模型,通过分析生成式人工智能如何影响不同居民的就业选择和收入,探究生成式人工智能对居民收入不平等的影响及机制。研究发现:生成式人工智能对收入不平等具有双刃剑效应。一方面,尽管生成式人工智能提高个体居民的人力资本,但会降低就业市场对劳动力的需求,导致失业率上升,经济陷入“内卷”。同时,生成式人工智能可能使一部分企业家被排斥出信贷市场,降低居民收入水平,最终加剧收入不平等。另一方面,生成式人工智能通过促进技术创新增加企业的预期经营利润,激励更多居民创业以及更多企业家进入信贷市场并扩大生产,由此增加企业人力资本需求,降低失业率,增加居民收入水平,最终缓解收入不平等。总体而言,生成式人工智能能否缓解收入不平等,取决于其人力资本渠道和技术创新渠道相互抵消后的净效应。异质性分析发现,在居民财富分布差距更大、企业生产的资本份额更低以及信贷市场的金融摩擦更大情况下,生成式人工智能更容易扩大收入不平等。政策分析发现,相较于普惠贷款类型的货币政策,针对企业减税的财政政策更有助于改善生成式人工智能对收入不平等的影响,但两者协调配合能够发挥更好的收入分配效果。Generative artificial intelligence(Generative AI),represented by ChatGPT,is gaining prominence in fields such as autonomous driving,speech recognition,and image recognition,and is increasingly scrutinized for its impact on employment and income distribution.This paper constructs a vocational selection model to analyze how Generative AI influences the employment and incomes of diverse residents,thereby affecting income inequality.In our model,generative artificial intelligence reveals a dual effect on income inequality.On one hand,while it enhances the human capital of individual residents,it also reduces labor demand in the job market,leading to higher unemployment rates.Furthermore,generative AI excludes certain entrepreneurs from accessing credit markets,thereby reducing residents'income and exacerbating income inequality.On the other hand,generative AI increases enterprise profits through technological innovation,encouraging more entrepreneurs to enter the credit market and expand production.This stimulates demand for human capital,raises wages,reduces unemployment,and ultimately mitigates income inequality.Overall,the extent to which generative AI alleviates income inequality hinges on the combined impact of its human capital and technological innovation channels.Heterogeneity analysis shows that generative AI is more likely to exacerbate income inequality in conditions where wealth distribution is more unequal,capital's share in production is lower,and there are larger financial frictions in the credit market.Additional policy analysis indicates that fiscal policies aimed at lowering taxes for businesses are more effective in mitigating the impact of generative artificial intelligence on income inequality compared to inclusive lendingoriented monetary policies.Nonetheless,a coordinated approach combining both strategies can achieve more substantial improvements.The conclusions point to several policy implications:(1)Promote the development of artificial intelligence,with a focus on generative AI,to accelerat

关 键 词：生成式人工智能 就业变动 收入不平等 职业选择模型 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济] F812[经济管理—国民经济] F832