冲突与合作:俄乌局势对德国经济与中德经贸的影响  

Conflict and Cooperation:Exploring the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Situation on the German Economy and Sino-German Trade and Economy

作　　者：胡云飞 Hu Yunfei

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学天华学院商学院

出　　处：《海关与经贸研究》2024年第3期97-109,共13页Journal of Customs and Trade

基　　金：上海市欧美同学会课题“英美智库关于中国话题报告的比较研究”(项目批准号:K202301025)。

摘　　要：本文聚焦于俄乌冲突对全球经济格局,尤其是对德国经济的深远影响。冲突导致的全球贸易波动、生产供应链中断及地区安全不稳定性,特别是在能源供应方面对德国造成了严重挑战。文章详细分析了由于能源短缺导致的德国工业生产能力下降和经济增长放缓的风险,并探讨了德国为对抗这些趋势采取的策略,包括增加从挪威的天然气进口、采购美国工业产品以及强化与中国的经贸合作。研究指出,在应对俄乌冲突引发的经济挑战中,中德经贸合作在短至中期内将是德国的一个重要经济战略。此外,还讨论了中国如何通过增强与德国及其他欧洲国家的经贸关系,来弥补新冠疫情带来的经济损失和内需短缺。最后,本文为政策制定者和企业管理者提供了关于中德经贸关系在当前地缘政治背景下的战略机遇的全新视角,并总结了俄乌冲突对德国经济的即时及潜在后续影响。This paper focuses on the far-reaching implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the global economic landscape and the German economy in particular.Conflict-induced fluctuations in global trade,disruptions in production supply chains,and regional security instability,especially in terms of energy supply,pose serious challenges to Germany.The paper analyzes in detail the risk of a decline in Germany’s industrial production capacity and a slowdown in economic growth as a result of energy shortages,and examines the strategies Germany has adopted to counteract these trends,including increased natural gas imports from Norway,sourcing of U.S.industrial products,and intensified economic and trade cooperation with China.The study points out that Sino-German economic and trade cooperation will be an important economic strategy for Germany in the short to medium term in dealing with the economic challenges arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.In addition,it discusses how China can compensate for the economic losses and domestic demand shortages caused by the COVID-19 epidemic by enhancing its economic and trade relations with Germany and other European countries.Finally,the paper provides policymakers and business managers with a fresh perspective on the strategic opportunities for Sino-German economic and trade relations in the current geopolitical context and summarizes the immediate and potential subsequent impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 中德经贸关系 能源供应 贸易多元化 

分 类 号：D822.351.6[政治法律—政治学] D815[政治法律—外交学] F125[经济管理—世界经济] F151.6